Hello r/njpw

I'm back with another A Block analysis. There's two shows left to go, and there's a lot at stake in pretty much every match, Our playoffs picture is starting to form. However, there are still some matters that need to be settled, so while things are still up in the air, I'm gonna go into how everything can turn out.

First off, I do need to address that at the time of writing, the Aug 8 A Block show is already finished. I apologize for getting this out late. The quick turnaround from Day 7 to Day 8 of A Block and the fact that they're taking place over a few work days, as well as needing to sort out the complexities of the 3-qualifier format, has given me a tough timeline to work with. Seeing as I've already written most of this, I'll post this anyway for posterity, as well as for anyone who hasn't seen the latest A Block show. However, I do understand that there'll be a good chunk of you reading this for the first time after having already seen the results that I'm speculating on in this post, so again, my apologies.

Now, regarding the actual content, this post will start diving into draws and ties. All odds will be calculated taking into account the possibilities that some matches could end in a countout or time-limit draw. However, I've weighted any outcomes that rely on those kinds of results less than ones that don't have any draws, so while I acknowledge the possibility, I also take into account that ties like that are very rare, and so I'm having them make less of an impact.

Before we begin, as usual, I'm gonna plug my G1 Climax results summary Google doc, which you can access here, that I'm manually updating as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a spoiler-free summary of the top 20 best matches of the block phase of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings), as well as the play-offs tree, which will be filled up once the qualified wrestlers are set.

With all that being said, let's kick things off, starting with the state of A Block.

A Block Standings

A couple of guys really benefited from the results on this past show. Others experienced significant losses that will impact their playoffs hopes. Who's got the best chances? Well, on that note, let's talk about …

Preface: The Top 4

Before we get into the details of each wrestler, there's something I want to go over that affects the chances of the block, and that's the pressure of the current top 4 scorers of A Block: EVIL, Zack Sabre Jr., Tetsuya Naito, and SANADA. With the format and their score lead, it's very likely that some or all of the playoffs spots will be taken by these guys. There's a 33% chance that all 4 wrestlers make more than 10 points, completely locking out the rest of the block, a 61% the playoffs will only comprise of these 4 regardless, and a 91% chance that at most one other person outside of the top 4 factors into the playoffs decision. That means that it's very likely that only one playoffs spot will go to someone outside of these 4, if any at all, and they'll most likely take the #3 spot.

It's like our pack of six-pointers are hungry dogs, ready to tear each other apart for a chance at the playoffs. Should the top 4 stay vigilant and keep their scores up to take the top spots, then the dogs will have to stay hungry, but if any of them show weakness and fall behind, the pack will tear them apart and try to take the spot for themselves. After this next show, we'll see if any of them are able to keep up, and if any of them can take a chunk out of our current leaders.

This is something important to keep in mind as we dive into each players odds. Now, with that out of the way, let's start with …

1) EVIL

• 10 pts; 5 wins, 2 losses
• 91.2% to go to the playoffs
  • 40.0% as #1
    • 36.1% as sole #1
    • 0.8% in a 2-way tie for #1
    • 3.0% in a 3-way tie for #1
    • 0.1% in other ties
  • 42.9% as #2
    • 39.6% as sole #2
    • 1.6% in a 2-way tie for #2
    • 1.7% in other ties
  • 8.3% as #3
    • 6.3% as sole #3
    • 2.1% in a tie for #3
• Best wins: Naito [8], SANADA [8], Kidd [6]
• Worst losses: ZSJ [10], O-Khan [6]

Some of you may be surprised to see I've listed Evil here as #1, despite having lost to ZSJ. While yes, ZSJ did beat Evil, and yes, ZSJ does have the best chance at taking the #1 seed in A Block, this ranking is based on overall chances to advance to the playoffs, and though Evil has a lesser chance of taking #1, he has a much better chance at coming in 2nd or 3rd than ZSJ, so he's slightly more likely to make the playoffs in any capacity.

Yes, Evil's on a bit of a losing streak, losing out first to Great-O-Khan, and then most recently and most significantly to ZSJ. However, his score lead and win record still give him lots of ways into the playoffs. First off, as a score leader in the block, Evil has a great advantage in that if he wins both of his remaining matches, then he makes the playoffs regardless. Secondly, his wins over current 8-pointers Naito & Sanada mean that he can't be overtaken if he's on 12 points with 6 wins. That means as long as he gets one win, regardless of who it is, his playoffs spot is locked, and it just becomes a matter of settling whether he'll take #1 or #2 (with at least one win, Evil can't finish 3rd). He'll take #1 as long as ZSJ has a lower score than him, and #2 if ZSJ has the same score or better. There're some fringe cases as well if Naito and/or Sanada make 12 as well, but I'll go over those later.

Things get a bit more complicated if Evil doesn't manage to get a win, but even a draw will be good enough for him. If he gets at least 1 draw, then he's only out if all of ZSJ, Naito, and Sanada do better than him, by score or by record (e.g., if Evil gets to 12 with 2 draws (5-2-2), but both Naito and Sanada get to 12 with 6 wins (6-3-0), and ZSJ does the same or better, then Evil misses out on the playoffs).

Evil is in real trouble though if he loses both of his remaining matches. If that happens, then he stays at 10 points, and not only is he still susceptible to being ovetaken by ZSJ, Naito, and Sanada, but he is also suddenly within reach of anyone currently at 6. He's at risk from ending up in an unfavorable tie with Great-O-Khan, who previously beat Evil, as well as Umino and Takagi, who are Evil's remaining opponents and who will have beaten him in this scenario. He will have some help from his prior wins, but it's a risky position. Still, it'll only happen if Evil loses twice. All he has to do is win one more time, and he's good. No problem, right?

2) Zack Sabre Jr.

• 10 pts; 5 wins, 2 loss
• 89.5% to go to the playoffs
  • 55.9% as #1
    • 51.0% as sole #1
    • 1.3% in a 2-way tie for #1
    • 3.5% in a 3-way tie for #1
    • 0.1% in other ties
  • 23.2% as #2
    • 18.0% as sole #2
    • 2.5% in a 2-way tie for #2
    • 2.6% in other ties
  • 10.4% as #3
    • 7.6% as sole #3
    • 2.7% in a tie for #3
• Best wins: EVIL [10], Naito [8], O-Khan [6]
• Worst losses: Takagi [6], Umino [6]

Joining Evil at the top of the board is Zack Sabre Jr., who enjoys a lot of the same benefits as Evil. Like Evil, just one win will ensure ZSJ factors into the playoffs decision. Also, his wins over Evil and Naito give him unparalleled tie-breaking power at the top.

Zack just has one little speed bump ahead of him, and that's Sanada. See, right now, Zack is in a slightly better place than Evil, but losing to Sanada is as damaging to ZSJ as losing to ZSJ is to Evil. It's a vulnerability in Zack's playoffs hopes, so he needs to be careful of that match in particular.

However, like I said, all ZSJ needs to do to make the playoffs is win once, and the match with Sanada comes at the end of the tournament. That means if ZSJ wins his next match against Gabe Kidd, then the match with Sanada won't be a huge deal. However, if he loses to Gabe Kidd, then he'll really want to win the match with Sanada, lest he fall prey to the 6-pointers in the same way Evil would.

3) Tetsuya Naito

• 8 pts; 4 wins, 3 losses
• 50.8% to go to the playoffs
  • 2.7% as #1
    • 2.1% as sole #1
    • 0.6% in a 3-way tie for #1
    • 0.1% in other ties
  • 14.2% as #2
    • 10.4% as sole #2
    • 1.3% in a 2-way tie for #2
    • 2.5% in other ties
  • 33.9% as #3
    • 28.0% as sole #3
    • 5.8% in a tie for #3
• Best wins: SANADA [8], Umino [6], Kidd [6]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], ZSJ [10], Takagi [6]

Moving down to the 8-pointers, we have the IWGP champion, El Ingobernable himself, Tetsuya Naito.

The win over Shota Umino has given Naito the boost he so desperately needed, getting the highest up the A Block leaderboard he's been all tournament. He's now in a very beneficial spot, though nothing is guaranteed just yet.

Let's go over his possibilities. For Naito, and the other guy at 8 points, winning twice and making 12 points means locking in his playoffs spot, so he does have full control over his destiny. However, that is the minimum he needs to do to guarantee his spot. Even a draw opens him up to being overtaken, as Evil, ZSJ, and Sanada can all still make 12 and overtake him. His odds drop as well if he drops a match and makes 10 points. He'll be in the same position as Evil & ZSJ would be if they lose both matches, but that comes about if Naito loses just once. Losing his next match with Callum Newman would be the least damaging, as Newman isn't in a position to make the playoffs. However, his other match against Great-O-Khan very much is a problem, as O-Khan is in a very real position to take a playoffs spot away from Naito, as I'll discuss later. Again, this also opens up Naito to Takagi, who beat Naito early on in the tournament. Fortunately, Naito has beaten the other 6-pointers, so score ties with them won't be a problem, but it's still not an ideal position.

However, if Naito doesn't get any wins, he can pretty much kiss his playoffs hopes goodbye. A draw or two won't eliminate him completely, but it won't be easy either. Thus, Naito can't relax just yet. If he stays vigilant and just doesn't lose a match, he'll be okay and advance to the playoffs.

4) SANADA

• 8 pts; 4 wins, 3 losses
• 45.0% to go to the playoffs
  • 9.4% as #1
    • 5.2% as sole #1
    • 0.4% in a 2-way tie for #1
    • 3.6% in a 3-way tie for #1
    • 0.1% in other ties
  • 18.6% as #2
    • 11.8% as sole #2
    • 3.4% in a 2-way tie for #2
    • 3.5% in other ties
  • 16.9% as #3
    • 11.8% as sole #3
    • 5.1% in a tie for #3
• Best wins: Takagi [6], Umino [6], Kidd [6]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], Naito [8], Lee [6]

Next up is Sanada, who's in a similar position to Naito. Like Naito, Sanada locks in his playoffs spot with two wins. However, unlike Naito, his next two matches are both quite critical. First up is Great-O-Khan, who, as I alluded to earlier in Naito's section, can very realistically snipe a playoffs spot with some wins, but even more critically is Sanada's last match against ZSJ, one of the block leaders. If Sanada can win there, He'll have an amazing boon in tie breakers, which Sanada desperately needs, considering he's already lost to both Evil & Naito. If he loses to ZSJ as well, Sanada'll be in big trouble, as he'll have lost to the current top 3 of A block, which is bad in a format where the top 3 are the ones to advance. He'll need to be extra sure he wins that match.

Apart from that, like Naito, Sanada can't afford to lose a match. At least one win is needed to give him a solid chance at qualifying, but obviously, two would be ideal.

5) Great-O-Khan

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 4 losses
• 16.0% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.3% as #1
    • 0.1% in a 2-way tie for #1
    • 0.1% in a 3-way tie for #1
    • 0.1% in other ties
  • 3.9% as #2
    • 0.9% as sole #2
    • 1.5% in a 2-way tie for #2
    • 1.5% in other ties
  • 11.7% as #3
    • 8.7% as sole #3
    • 3.0% in a tie for #3
• Best wins: EVIL [10], Lee [6], Newman [4]
• Worst losses: ZSJ [10], Takagi [6], Umino [6]

We now move down to the 6-pointers, a group with significantly less chance to make the playoffs, though their tournament hopes aren't gone just yet. First off is Great-O-Khan, who fares the best among the 6-pointers.

O-Khan is in a position I didn't anticipate for him. O-Khan has been drifting at the bottom of the block all tournament, but all of a sudden, in one night, the stars aligned and now O-Khan has shot up to the top half of the block. This is thanks to a few factors, but the most significant ones are his two remaining matches: Tetsuya Naito and Sanada. Both of them are at 8 points, but if O-Khan can beat both of them, then the only 2 people who can outscore O-Khan are Evil & ZSJ. That can put O-Khan in a solid 3rd place spot, with potentially two incredibly powerful tie-breaking wins as well, which could be just enough to push the KOPW champion into the playoffs

Now, he's not invulnerable, as he's lost to almost everyone else at 6-points, but with Naito and Sanada potentially buffing his tie-breaking power, he'd be in a great position to fend them off. He also needs to beat BOTH of them. Just one isn't enough, as he needs to make 10 points in order to have a chance at the playoffs, and neither Naito nor Sanada will be easy wins. It's a massive opportunity for O-Khan, but opportunity can only turn into reality if he is able to manifest it himself, so we'll see if O-Khan has the ability to clutch things out this late in the game.

6) Shingo Takagi

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 4 losses
• 11.6% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.4% as #1
    • 0.2% as sole #1
    • 0.05% in a 2-way tie for #1
    • 0.1% in a 3-way tie for #1
    • 0.03% in other ties
  • 4.0% as #2
    • 1.3% as sole #2
    • 1.7% in a 2-way tie for #2
    • 1.0% in other ties
  • 7.1% as #3
    • 3.8% as sole #3
    • 3.1% in a tie for #3
• Best wins: ZSJ [10], Naito [8], O-Khan [6]
• Worst losses: SANADA [8], Umino [6], Kidd [6]

Next down the list is Shingo Takagi, who suffered greatly from his loss to Sanada. He could've been a fingertip away from glory, but now he needs to struggle to claim his playoffs spot.

As with O-Khan, Takagi needs to be perfect in his remaining matches in order to have a chance at the playoffs. However, while Takagi's potential isn't quite as high as O-Khan's, his opponents are, at least on paper, a bit easier to deal with. First up is the block leader Evil, who Takagi has managed to beat in the past, though they've exchanged wins and losses, so it's not exactly a sure bet. Then, his last match will be against Jake Lee, who hasn't been performing excellently in this tournament, though considering both he and Takagi are at 6 points, he's not doing too badly either, at least comparatively.

If he clears both of them, then it's all up to fate for Takagi. He's still haunted by his losses to Umino & Kidd, but the O-Khan win could come in clutch, and he'll be in a solid places if leaders fail to make more than 10, as he'll have beaten a lot of them. We'll see if Takagi can still make it.

7) Shota Umino

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 4 losses
• 9.8% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.5% as #1
    • 0.1% as sole #1
    • 0.1% in a 2-way tie for #1
    • 0.2% in a 3-way tie for #1
    • 0.1% in other ties
  • 4.0% as #2
    • 0.9% as sole #2
    • 1.7% in a 2-way tie for #2
    • 1.5% in other ties
  • 5.3% as #3
    • 2.3% as sole #3
    • 3.0% in a tie for #3
• Best wins: ZSJ [10], O-Khan [6], Takagi [6]
• Worst losses: Naito [8], SANADA [8], Kidd [6]

Also (still) on 6-points Shota Umino is Shota Umino.

Umino has a lot in common with Takagi at the moment. They both experienced devastating losses in this past A Block show, putting them far down the ranks. They're both sitting on 6-points, and they both need to win both of their remaining matches in order to have even a sniff at the playoffs.

However, the funniest thing that the two have in common is that they both have the same final two opponents, just in a different order. For Umino, he'll have to overcome Jake Lee first before going up against Evil on the last A Block day. Will Umino be able to overcome the odds from the bad boys of Bullet Club?

8) Gabe Kidd

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 4 losses
• 8.2% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.2% as #1
    • 0.1% in a 3-way tie for #1
    • 0.1% in other ties
  • 2.2% as #2
    • 1.0% in a 2-way tie for #2
    • 1.2% in other ties
  • 5.8% as #3
    • 2.3% as sole #3
    • 3.5% in a tie for #3
• Best wins: O-Khan [6], Takagi [6], Umino [6]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], Naito [8], SANADA [8]

Speaking of Bullet Club, the War Dogs make up the bottom of the list of eligible playoffs players in A Block.

Although he found respect for Jake Lee in their last match, the two of them now find themselves at the ass-end of A Block, with very low chances to make the playoffs. Losing to Evil, Naito, and Sanada has done a number on Kidd's chances, but he can rectify this somewhat in his next big match against ZSJ. After that, it'll be a UE rival Callum Newman to close out the tournament. Like the other 6-pointers, Kidd will have to beat both of these Brits to have a decent chance at the playoffs.

9) Jake Lee

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 4 losses
• 3.3% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.2% as #2
    • 0.03% in a 2-way tie for #2
    • 0.2% in other ties
  • 3.1% as #3
    • 2.0% as sole #3
    • 1.1% in a tie for #3
• Best wins: SANADA [8], Kidd [6], Newman [4]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], ZSJ [10], Naito [8]

Last in line among those eligible to make the playoffs is the so-called Smart Bastard Jake Lee. Well, he may be smart, but he hasn't been successful. Losing to Evil, ZSJ, and Naito has pretty much eliminated any hope Jake has of a #1 seed in the playoffs, and his chances to make #2 and #3 aren't much better. He also only has 6-pointers left to deal with (Takagi and Umino), who won't be able to help him in a 10-point tie break if he does beat them, so he'll have very little tie-breaking power even at 10-points. It's a far cry for Jake to make the playoffs, even if he does beat them both.

10) Callum Newman

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 5 losses
• Mathematically eliminated from playoffs contention
• Best wins: Takagi [6], Umino [6]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], ZSJ [10], SANADA [8]

Lastly, we have Callum Newman, who unfortunately cannot make the playoffs anymore. All he can hope to do is finish with a decent score, and potentially spoil some hopes.

His next match will be his biggest one of his tournament, because he'll be taking on the IWGP champion Tetsuya Naito. It'll be a rematch from Dominion, where Newman found defeat, so he'll be looking for redemption there. His last match won't be nearly as momentous, though it might be about as personal, as he'll be taking on Gabe Kidd. Kidd isn't very high up the rankings of A Block, but the lingering grudges between United Empire and the War Dogs still burn, and the opportunity to one up a fellow Brit doesn't hurt either.

Ties

Lastly, let's dive into some ties, because there are a couple that could realistically factor into the playoffs. First off, there are a number of deadlock ties among A Block's top 4, especially depending on the results of SANADA vs ZSJ. In particular, there's three ways out 3 qualifiers will be caught in a deadlock tie among these 4:

• ZSJ-EVIL-SANADA
• ZSJ-Naito-SANADA
• EVIL-Naito-SANADA

These'll happen with the three finishing with 12 or 11 while the 4th guy finishes with less, or in some funky large tie at 10-points that devolves into a 3-way tie.

However, there's an even bigger tie situation that should be addressed, and that's if all 4 of them finish at 12. This happens if Naito wins all his matches, SANADA wins all his matches (including against ZSJ), ZSJ beats Kidd, and EVIL wins exactly one of his matches. In this case, we have a weird schmoz at the top of the block that's a bit hard to break. At the top, we'd have EVIL & ZSJ, because EVIL beat Naito & SANADA, while ZSJ beat EVIL & Naito, and at the bottom, we'd have Naito & SANADA, because they only beat one of the 4 (SANADA & ZSJ, respectively). I'd guess ZSJ would take #1 since he beat EVIL and EVIL takes #2, while Naito takes #3 because he beat SANADA. This is just speculation, as New Japan hasn't provided confirmation on how this type of tie breaks down, but if it stays a possibility going into the last day, we'll have to address it again.

Lastly, to close off this section, I'll go over everyone's favorite convolution: massive multi-man draws. In A Block, the biggest tie left is a 7-way draw for first at 10 points. It happens as follows:

• O-Khan beats Naito and SANADA, making 10 points
• Umino beats Lee and EVIL, making 10 points
• EVIL loses to Takagi, making 10 points
• Naito beats Newman, making 10 points
• SANADA beats ZSJ, making 10 points
• ZSJ beats Kidd, making 10 points
• Kidd beats Newman, making 10 points
• Lee beats or draws Takagi, preventing wither man from making 10 points

This creates a 7-way deadlock between O-Khan, Umino, EVIL, Naito, SANADA, ZSJ, and Kidd.

What's Next?

Tensions are high in this phase of the tournament, and with 9 people still alive, every match will be critical.

We'll kick things off with Naito vs Newman. Newman's out of the running, but the prospect of both beating and spoiling the world champion should still be enough to satiate the Prince of Pace.

Next up is SANADA vs Great-O-Khan. As I discussed above, O-Khan's on a warpath in his last few matches, and while this won't be SANADA's biggest match, he still needs to take care with this one.

The 3rd match will be 6-pointer vs 6-pointer, with Shota Umino vs Jake Lee. Considering our 6-pointers will need to win all their matches in order to make the playoffs, one of these two will be eliminated on this next show.

Lastly, our top two matches will feature the top two wrestlers in A Block trying to fend off the hungry 6-point dogs, with Zack Sabre Jr. taking on fellow British wrestler Gabe Kidd in the semi-main event, and EVIL having to contend with his former LIJ stablemate Shingo Takagi. Will the two block leaders secure their playoffs spot, or will the dogs live to fight another day?

That'll do for this post. Again, I apologize for getting this out a bit late. Fortunately, the there's a bigger gap 'til B Block show, so I should be able to get my next write-up before then. After that, It'll be one last post summarizing both blocks and what we might see in the playoffs.

Until next time, thanks for reading! See you next post.