Hello r/njpw

Welcome to my final World Tag League analysis post, and my last tournament post for New Japan for the year!

We're down to the last few days of World Tag League, as well as the last few shows of the year for New Japan as a whole. Wrestle Kingdom is fast approaching, and the final matches for that show will be established through this tournament. However, before we get to Wrestle Kingdom, we must crown World Tag League champions, and that's what we'll be looking at today, so let's dive in.

As usual, I'm gonna plug my World Tag League results summary Google doc, which you can access here, that I'm manually updating as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a spoiler-free summary of the top 20 best matches of the block phase of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings), as well as the playoffs tree, which will be filled up once the qualified wrestlers are set.

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Let's have a look at A Block

A Block

Well, as expected, over half the block was eliminated from contention this past Monday, and A Block is down to just 3 teams: Bishamon, War Dogs, and Takagi & Tsuji. These teams will feature in just two matches (Bishamon vs War Dogs, and Takagi & Tsuji vs Umino & Honma), so the possible results are fairly easy to map out.

Case 1: Bishamon beats War Dogs

This is the simplest way. With Bishamon's prior win over Takagi & Tsuji, they have the most autonomy in this block. Should they beat the War Dogs as well, their conquest of A Block will be completely uncontested.

Case 2: War Dogs beat Bishamon, Takagi & Tsuji don't beat Umino & Honma

However, if the tables turn and War Dogs beats Bishamon, then they'll take the A Block finals spot. However, that depends on the result of the other match. If Takagi & Tsuji are unable to beat Umino & Honma to make 10 points, then War Dogs move ahead as normal, but if they do …

Case 3: War Dogs beat Bishamon, Takagi & Tsuji beat Umino & Honma

In this case, both War Dogs and Takagi & Tsuji are at 10 points, so it goes down to tie-breaks, and because Takagi & Tsuji beat the War Dogs earlier in the tournament, the LIJ team breaks the tie and claims the finals spot for themselves.

Case 4: Bishamon and War Dogs draw

The last case is a bit of a fringe case, but merits examination regardless. This is the unlikely case where Bishamon & War Dogs go to a draw, leaving both teams at 9. The ultimate result depends on what happens in the Takagi & Tsuji-Umino & Honma match.

If Takagi & Tsuji win, then they make 10 points, and take the finals spot no problem. If they lose, then it leaves an exact tie for #1 between Bishamon & War Dogs, which would likely result in another match to settle who takes the finals spot.

However, if Takagi & Tsuji also draw Umino & Honma, then we have a three-way point-draw at 9. However, this one is easier to break. Since Bishamon beat Takagi & Tsuji and drew War Dogs, they have the best head-to-head record (Takagi & Tsuji have one win and one loss, while War Dogs has one draw and one loss), so Bishamon moves on to the finals in that case.

Thus, the results table looks like this:

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With A Block done, let's move over to B Block

B Block

In some ways, B Block is neater than A Block, but in some ways it's not. At the very least, the dynamic is different here. We effectively have only 2 contenders left (O-Khan & HENARE and Naito & Hiromu), and they'll be facing each other on Friday, so t should be an effective semi-final match, but the presence of Yano & Boltin in the mix complicates things, and House of Torture might also cause some issues. Let's just start with the simplest outcomes.

Case 1: O-Khan & HENARE beat or draw Naito & Hiromu

Having the point lead gives O-Khan & HENARE a distinct advantage versus anyone else in the tournament. It means that they can guarantee their finals spot even on a draw, because they'd still make 11 points, bringing them out of reach of anyone else in the block.

Case 2: Naito & Hiromu beat O-Khan & HENARE, Yano & Boltin do not beat TMDK

However, if Naito & Hiromu do manage to beat the tag champs, then they'll match their score with the tie break over them. As long as no other team makes 10 points to muddy things up, Naito & Hiromu take the final spot clean. Hell, even if HoT do beat Tanahashi & Jado in this case, it won't matter, because HoT has lost to both O-Khan & HENARE and Naito & Hiromu.

Case 3: Naito & Hiromu beat O-Khan & HENARE, Yano & Boltin beat TMDK, HoT does not beat Tanahashi & Jado

Things start getting complicated if Yano & Boltin make 10 as well. With O-Khan & HENARE, Naito & Hiromu, and Yano & Boltin all at 10 points, they become locked in a three-way deadlock for #1. As per usual with these deadlocks, I'm not sure what the resolution is, but I guess we'll find out if it happens.

Case 4: Naito & Hiromu beat O-Khan & HENARE, Yano & Boltin beat TMDK, HoT beats Tanahashi & Jado

Adding House of Torture to the mix doesn't help much. If HoT beats Tanahashi & Jado as well, we now have 4 teams with 10 points. Among them, O-Khan & HENARE and Naito & Hiromu both have two head-to-head wins (Yano & Boltin and HoT, and O-Khan & HENARE and HoT, respectively), while Yano & Boltin and HoT each have just one (Naito & Hiromu and Yano & Boltin, respectively). In this case, I imagine O-Khan & HENARE and Naito & Hiromu take the lead, but how it gets broken after that is unclear.

And so the results table for B Block looks like this. The "with draws" section is a bit long, but I think you get the idea:

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Potential Finals Match-Ups

So with all the potential outcomes laid out, what are we looking at as far as what the finals match could be? Well, at this point, the most likely finals match-up is Bishamon vs O-Khan & HENARE, which is a prestigious match-up. The reigning WTL champions vs the current IWGP tag champs. Bishamon vs Naito & Hiromu isn't quite as momentous, though Goto & Naito have enough history to make it interesting.

Then there's the War Dogs, who each have their own dance partners. Gabe Kidd matching back up with United Empire writes itself, and I'm sure HENARE in particular wants to get his hands on Kidd. On the other hand, the connection between SANADA and Naito & Hiromu doesn't need to be said. Yeah, they've clashed many times before, but the new context of SANADA as a War Dog adds a new wrinkle.

Lastly, Takagi & Tsuji have little bit with each of the B Block contenders as well. The recent history of Takagi & HENARE is enough to build the context of that final match-up, but the obvious fan-pleaser here is the all-LIJ final.

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That does it for me here. Like I said, that'll be the last tournament analysis post for me this year. The next round robin tournament for New Japan will almost certainly be the Best of the Super Juniors next May, so I'll see you all back in half a year. However, I do have something fun in the works for the remainder of the year leading up to Wrestle Kingdom. I'll talk about that later on.

Also, if you keep up with AEW, I'm still doing write-ups for the Continental Classic, so come over to r/AEWOfficial to keep up with me there if you're interested.

Until then, thanks for reading! See you next post.