I’ve been feeling really anxious about Japan’s future, especially after Trump cut off military aid to Ukraine and stopped sharing intelligence with them. To me, this seems like a signal that the U.S. isn’t as committed to its allies as we thought. If China decided to invade Taiwan, will the U.S. actually defend it? And if Taiwan falls, how safe is Japan—especially Okinawa?
Also, I know Japan ranks pretty high in global military rankings, but I’m not sure how reliable those rankings really are. The JSDF hasn’t had actual military experience in over 80 years, and while we do joint exercises with the U.S. and other allies, that’s not the same as real combat. Japan has increased its defense budget and is modernizing its forces, but is that really enough if the U.S. backs away?
by lostgirl-17
25 comments
Everyone should be worried at the moment.
New, or stronger, alliances need to be made as the U.S. declines. The other major democracies still outperform autocratic nations, but should also be aware of populism and the power of cyber warfare and propaganda to disrupt domestic politics.
Does china have any modern military experience? Harassing fisherman doesn’t count
Worry is the correct response
You should be aware that Ukraine is not an ally of the US and the Budapest Memorandum specifically did not include a security guarantee for Ukraine- which the US very intentionally did not include.
Japan and the US however are official allies, Japan has a security guarantee from America, and is protected under the American nuclear umbrella.
That said, this behavior from Trumps administration should be off putting and a little worrying even for allies.
you shouldn’t be worried…
Ukraine to Russia is fundamentally different that Japan to China
US has military base in Japan, but US will never have military base in Ukriane.
US will protect Japan because it’s US’s core interest to protect Pacific.
Not sure if US will protect Taiwan because Taiwan to China is like Ukraine to Russia.
fundamentally it depends on if Taiwanese want to fight against Chinese.
Okinawa is in a much safer position than Taiwan both militarily and in terms of sovereignty (even from China’s perspective)
The biggest concern for me is the gradual collapse and shut down of a lot of Japanese infrastructure and farming as a lot of the more rural areas become increasing more and more abandoned and the population decreases
That’s what I’m scared about and what I feel will have the greatest impact here in the next couple of decades.
Nobody in the world can trust the US anymore and unfortunately that includes Japan.
Japan has nothing but downside under Trump, mostly related to Taiwan.
If Trump decides to throw Taiwan under the bus and tell Xi “do whatever you want” the economic effect on Japan will be devastating even if the fighting doesn’t spread to Japan.
On the other hand if Trump decides to defend Taiwan, Japan will likely be drawn unwillingly into the conflict since the Chinese would probably target US forces in Okinawa at which point Japan will find itself at war with China.
Some of this would happen regardless of who is President, but Trump dismantling the US led world order and effectively trashing the international system has made the above “lose-lose” scenario for Japan a lot more likely than it was under Biden (or any previous US president).
More worried about Taiwan than Japan. Great country full of people just trying to go about their lives, same as anyone else.
As an Aussie in Japan I’m fully expecting Trump to tell Australia that he’s keeping the submarines our last PM shafted France over and the money we paid for them.
I don’t see trump giving a crap about Taiwan, if China does something to it he probably wouldn’t care. And judging by the way he’s talking about the US bases on japanese soil, that will probably be his pretense for abandoning them.
A major mistake is to equate China with Russia. In the 90’s, everyone thought China was going to collapse like the USSR. In 2022, everyone thought China was going to invade Taiwan. China is not Russia. You can’t use the same framework to analyze China.
China is getting closer to its goal to becoming a world leader, it leads half of UN organizations: FAO, ITU, UNIDO, WHO, ICAO, and more.Why would they squander this to outright invade Taiwan. Also, the Taiwan strait is an active shipping lane, China is the world biggest high value added exporter. A war would disrupt this.
With the status quo, time is actually in China’s best interest. Gen-Zs and Gen-Alpha are hooked on TikTok and RedNote. Those platforms are very pro-China. So, Taiwanese would slowly gravitate back to Chinese identity.
I think Japan needs to focus inwards. Everyone is angry at the mismanaged economy. It was fine when inflation was 0%. It’s not the same anymore. There are more homeless people by day, a lot of people are struggling.
japan recognizes one china policy though
We have to see what happens but it’s possible the US won’t step in to be honest. The discussion for “reciprocity” for US bases in Japan is weird and I think the end game is remove US bases from Japan.
Japan won’t be safe without the US. The lack of actual army (just a self defense force) is naturally limiting and Russia is a nuclear power now. Russia has tried to invade Japan in the past (and there are still island disputes) so it’s honestly not looking good.
Another big fear is Trump cancelling US debt. If he reneges on US debt (which he has also talked about saying some debt is “fake”), Japan’s economy is going to get crippled as it’s the largest foreign holder of US debt. Trump will not care if Japan gets screwed over and its economy wrecked (hell, I bet some Us millionaires will take glee pillaging Japan and buying up major corporations like Sony or Japan steel).
Yes, and with family in Taiwan, we are going to visit them this month because we don’t know for certain there won’t be war now that Trump is in office. Biden declared four times that he would defend Taiwan. Trump will make a deal with whoever bribes him the most (currently Putin).
Well As a Taiwanese, I honestly don’t know what the fuck is going to happen in the future from now on.
Trump’s rhetorics towards Ukraine and TSMC are definitely not making Taiwanese people feel assured about the US under his administration. Been seeing more and more pessimistic opinions around that the chance of annexation by PRC is getting higher and Taiwan should negotiate a peaceful annexation with PRC if it’s inevitable..
As an American, I think your concern is justified. And I am sorry that my government is causing distress for our Japanese friends. I feel deeply ashamed. I hope that Japan will take a page out of Europe’s book and begin investing in your regional relationships and defenses. I don’t think the world can depend on the USA being an international force for common defense while Donald is a presence in government, nor while the Republican Party is under his influence. Again, I am so, so sorry. This is such a painful situation.
Yes. I am worried about Taiwan in the short-term and Japan farther down the road. I’m afraid for all democracies. It’s only a matter of time before the new world order continues to take shape and destroy democracy worldwide
The only reason ukraine could be invaded without repercussions is because ukraine doesnt have any real alliances or nuclear option. Japan doesnt have nuclear weapon on paper, but japan have all the ingredients to acquired one on very short notice. So unless japan was invaded and completely taken over immediately, then the invading country is looking at a nuclear retaliation.
Not to mention people act like chinese people will get in line to sign up for the army. Modern chinese living stardard in the cities is very high, a lot of people are comfortable. They ran into the same problem america ran into, young people domt want to die for some greasy, corrupt fuck politicians. When the Ukrainian war happened, russia had to close thr county because so many people fled. The braindrain that happened at the beginning of the war will affect russia for decades. Going to war is not that easy. Its why what putin did was so insane from every aspect it was geopolitical suicide. Without india and china buying energy, russia would be ruined right now. And its not like they are doing well. The country winning the war comfortably are not looking for peace talk.
China taking taiwan might be possible. Lets be real, who will defend taiwan? But japan? I dont think so.
I’m concerned about this too as, if the invasion of Taiwan goes ahead, there’s no way that Japan won’t be dragged in too.
Having said that, there are some people that think that the reason that Trump is sucking up to Putin is that he wants another ally in the region should the US decide to stop China. It’s probably just another Internet Conspiracy Theory, though.
What the hell is Taiwan going to do?
If US decides to ditch the Pacific, and if East Asia didn’t change their defense strategies, it’s just a matter of time before China invades Taiwan, than Japan next on the chopping block, one does not simply disband an armed industry after investing so much in it, especially when generational hate and nationalism is prevalent.
If the unthinkable happens, I hope Taiwan and Japan and hopefully Korea can fight together, it’s either fighting alone on Japanese soil or fighting on Taiwan turf at least with an ally.
I’m mostly terrified Trump is going to abandon defending Japan in the event an attack would happen. Japan recently stopped buying US debt, just worries me Trump will be offended and act like a child and risk such an important agreement. I understand where Japan is coming from however. I hope we maintain a very strong relationship.
Okinawa is where I live, it’s not bad. You can thank Obama for troop withdrawal from Okinawa, it started in 2012 and began being implemented under Biden in 2024.
Trump has offered two solutions, pay 100% of the cost (Japan pays 75% of the cost currently) or Create your own military. I’m sure if they moved towards a Korean model of building a large army and conscription, the amount of troops needed in Japan would be much less and thus reducing that 100% to what they are currently paying or less. The problem is getting the Japanese population eager to serve or implementing mandatory conscription.
We’re all worried. And as an American, I’m ashamed, embarrassed and enraged that even one of my fellow citizens support this clown. However, I’ve gotten the impression that Trump has a soft spot for Japan. Abe probably did his country a lot of favors by winning over the orange dipshit during his first term.
American here. Honestly the moment we passed the CHIPS Act, I started to wonder if we were writing off Taiwan.