Hello r/njpw

Welcome to my final block roundup post for this year's BOSJ.

Today's show sure was something, eh? The tension was finally cut, and we finally got a butt-load of eliminations. It's down to 4/5 wrestlers in each block, and with only a handful of matches left to go over, it's very easy to see exactly how each person still in contention can make the finals.

Today, we'll be going over both blocks in one post, since there's not as much to cover for individual posts. However, as we'll see later, the two blocks are actually very similar to each other.

So let's get into it. The final analysis post for this year's BOSJ!

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For those of you who are new to these, I make posts rounding up the possible outcomes for these round-robin tournaments. For this post, we'll be looking at the specific possible outcomes and seeing who has the best chance of making the finals.

As usual, you may also view my BOSJ 32 results summary page here. I'm manually updating it as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a summary of the top 20 best matches of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings).

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Today, I'm gonna switch things, and I'm gonna cover B Block first. You'll see why when we get to A Block.

B Block Standings

So yes, we're down to the 10-pointers, and a couple of the 8-pointers, left in contention for the B Block winner.

Let's start with the simple matters. The guys with the best chance of making the finals are our 10-pointers, and they're all in separate matches. Yoh is facing Taiji Ishimori, Mao is taking on Sho, and El Desperado will have to deal with Robbie Eagles.

The most likely outcome is that at least one of these three wins or draws their match, and if that happens, whoever scores above 10 wins. If more than one of them achieves the top score, then we go to tie-breakers. Among these three, Yoh has the overall advantage in tie-breakers, since he beat both Mao and Despe. Despe would be second since he beat Mao. So if Yoh wins then he takes the block regardless, if Despe wins then he takes the block unless Yoh also wins, and the only way for Mao to take the block is if both Yoh and Despe lose.

So what happens if all three lose their match? This is where Sho comes in. In this scenario, we have 6 people on 10 points, all with a 5-4 record. Yoh, Despe, and Mao all lost, so they stay at 10, but Eagles, Sho, and Ishimori won, so they all move up to 10. With 6 people on the same score, we need to break the tie somehow, and to do that, we look at head-to-head results (i.e. how each person did against each other. With this mechanic, Sho comes out on top.

• Sho has 4 head-to-head (hth) wins (Yoh, Eagles, Ishimori, Mao)
• Ishimori has 3 hth wins (Despe, Yoh, Eagles)
• Everyone else has 2
  • Despe: Sho & Mao
  • Yoh: Despe & Mao
  • Eagles: Depse & Yoh
  • Mao: Eagles & Ishimori

And thus, in this scenario, Sho takes the block.

… Well, except for one thing.

There is one more person who can make 10 points, and that is Nick Wayne. If he beats Titan on the last day and makes 10, then he gets factored into the computation. Unfortunately, he can't win the block, since he only has 3 hth wins (Despe, Eagles, and Sho). However, crucially, he gives hth wins to Yoh, Mao, and most importantly, Taiji Ishimori.

With that, now both Ishimori and Sho have 4 hth wins. How is settled? Honestly, I don't know. If I had to guess, there are 3 ways this can go: 1) since Sho beat Ishimori, Sho ranks higher and takes the block anyway, or 2) New Japan considers this an exact draw, and we hold a pseudo semi-final match between Sho & Ishimori to settle it, or 3) New Japan uses some other way to break the tie that I'm not privy to. This is why there's an asterisk beside Ishimori's "Tie Only" Status. This particular kind of tie might not matter.

To summarize, I've outlined the outcomes in the following table. I've only considered the main three matches. Taguchi vs Knight has zero bearing, and Wayne vs Titan only matters conditionally.

B Block Results Table

So that's B Block.

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A Block Standings

A Block is in a very similar situation to B Block. The score layout is once again the same (3 10's, 4 8's, and 3 6's), and we have all the 10-pointers plus one 8-pointer in contention. As a matter of fact, the odds and possibilities for who takes A Block are almost identical to that of B Block. However, the devil's in the details, so let's jump in.

As with B Block, the bulk of the potential outcomes involve the three 10-pointers, and who among them manages to score in their respective matches. Also like B Block, there's a hierarchy. Among the three Hiromu has the advantage, as he's beaten both Wato and Connors. Following him is Connors, who beat Wato.

Also like B Block, things break down a bit if all three of the 10-pointers lose their respective matches. However, since most of their respective match-ups are against 6-pointers (Hiromu faces Robbie X, and Wato faces Kanemaru), we're not creating any new 10-pointers … except for one, because Clark Connor's opponent is Kosei Fujita, so he would join the schmoz at 10.

Here's the kicker: Fujita has defeated all three of the 10-pointers, so if he joins them, and none of them make it past 10, he breaks the tie and is the undisputed winner of A Block.

However, there are other matches that can create other 10-pointers. Dragon Dia is taking on Ninja Mack, so Dia can make 10. Furthermore, Akira and Kushida will face off on the last day, and the winner of that match will make 10 as well. However, it mostly doesn't matter. Fujita beat Dia, so Dia making 10 doesn't change anything. Fujita also beat Akira, so Akira at 10 doesn't change things either. However, Fujita did lose to Kushida, so Kushida's win would change things slightly. Unfortunately for Kushida, it's not in his benefit. Here's how the hth results shakeout with Kushida added to the mix

• Kushida only has 1 hth win (Fujita)
• Wato also only has 1 hth win (Kushida)
• Connors is next with 2 hth wins (Kushida and Wato)
• Fujita stays on 3 hth wins (Wato, Connors, and Hiromu)
• Hiromu now also has 3 hth wins (Kushida, Wato, and Connors)

Thus, we would have Hiromu and Fujita on top. This is the same situation as Sho & Ishimori in B Block, only this isn't the only way Hiromu can qualify. The same things I said there apply here as well (either Fujita wins with his win over Hiromu, the pseudo-semi-final match between the two, or some other tie-break method).

Also, if Dia makes 10 alongside Kushida, then it goes back to Fujita being the sole winner (Hiromu's loss to Dia drop him back to #2).

With all that being said, here's the results table:

A Block Results Table

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In Summary

• If any of the 10-pointers make points, one of them will be the winner
• If all the 10-pointers lose, then it'll be Kosei Fujita / SHO for A Block / B Block, respectively (barring the odd tie break situations I described above.

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That wraps it up for my coverage of this year's Best of the Super Juniors. All that's left are the final block day of each block, and the finals, whoever ends up in it. Thank you to everyone who enjoyed my posts the last few days. I read all the comments and I appreciate all the feedback. It's fun reading everyone's fantasy bookings, and I am happy to facilitate them. Feel free to continue referencing these posts as well as my tracker Google Doc.

Stay tuned as well in the summer for my coverage of this year's G1 Climax. That's always a big one.

Until then, thanks for reading! See you next post.