Before I say anything, I just wanna say fuck you Gedo for making me write and study so much in such a short amount of time.

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Hello r/njpw

Welcome back to my coverage of the BOSJ 32, and let me just say, today's show has cut a swathe through the the blocks. Although technically almost everyone is still alive, we're effectively down to 5 wrestlers. How does that look? Let's find out.

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For those of you who are new to these, I make posts rounding up the possible outcomes for these round-robin tournaments. I look at the % odds of each team of making it out of the block phase (taking all results as equal), sometimes even taking draws into account.

As usual, you may also view my BOSJ 32 results summary page here. I'm manually updating it as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a summary of the top 20 best matches of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings).

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Just a quick update on things. Starting today, I will be taking draw results into account. They will be relevant for some people, so keep an eye out for that.

A Block Standings

Look at all those guys without the word "Out" in the status column.

Okay, so while not everyone is technically out, realistically, Only the guys with 8 points or more have a decent chance at taking the block. Let's see how they can do it, starting with …

1) Master Wato

• 10 pts; 5 wins, 2 losses
• 52.6% to go to the finals
  • 50.3% as sole #1
  • 2.3% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Francesco Akira [8]
• Worst Losses: Kosei Fujita [8], Clark Connors [8]
• Upcoming matches:
  • vs Hiromu Takahashi (May 25)
  • vs Yoshinobu Kanemaru (May 27)

Holding onto his block leadership status is Master Wato, with an impressive victory over KUSHIDA.

As the sole block leader with two days of competition left, Wato has the distinct advantage of being guaranteed to survive this next show. No matter what, he will be factor in deciding the finals on the last day, regardless of who wins and loses tomorrow. He is also the only one with 100% control of his destiny. If he notches two more wins, he takes A Block. Hell, if he wins his next match, he'd be a heavy favorite. He'd be at 12 points going into the last day, the only one to do so.

His main two problems are Fujita and Connors. If Fujita and Connors win their match tomorrow, they'll be keeping pace with Wato. They'll also be facing each other on the final day, so that raises the chances that at least one of them finishes on 12. Should that happen, if Wato fails to win 14, he'll be out of luck.

That's not all, though, as another person could absolutely ruin Wato's hopes, and that's Hiromu Takahashi. Wato's next match is a doozy, as he'll be facing Hiromu in the main event of tomorrow's show. Should he lose to Hiromu, he won't be out of the running, but he'll be in big trouble. He'll need to hit 12 by beating Kanemaru, and he'll need Hiromu to lose or draw his last match against Robbie X. He'll also still need to avoid a Fujita or Connors 12.

These are the best odds in A Block, though, so while it's not pretty, Wato should be thankful for the position he's in. It's up to him to secure another finals appearance.

2) Kosei Fujita

• 8 pts; 4 wins, 3 losses
• 16.7% to go to the finals
  • 15.7% as sole #1
  • 1.0% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Master Wato [10], Hiromu Takahashi [8], Francesco Akira [8]
• Worst Losses: N/A
• Upcoming matches:
  • vs Ninja Mack (May 25)
  • vs Clark Connors (May 27)

Making his way back up the ranks is Kosei Fujita, who is still hot on the heels of the block leader.

Things are looking up for the Japanese Young Punk. Among the other 4 contenders with a significant chance to take A Block, he has beaten 3 of them, and the last he'll face in an upcoming match. That means if he wins both of his remaining matches and makes 12, He will have unrivaled tie-breaking power in the block. His only issue would be Wato also winning twice and making 14, outscoring him. Even on 10, he has a decent shot at winning, though obviously being outscored would be a bigger issue, as would Connors if that is the match he happens to lose.

And so the stage is set for Fujita. He doesn't have to worry about a lot of other matches. Win two and hope Wato loses at least once. Not a 100% control, but still pretty good.

3) Hiromu Takahashi

• 8 pts; 4 wins, 3 losses
• 16.5% to go to the finals
  • 13.8% as sole #1
  • 2.8% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Clark Connors [8]
• Worst Losses: Kosei Fujita [8], Francesco Akira [8]
• Upcoming matches:
  • vs Master Wato (May 25)
  • vs Robbie X (May 27)

Next up is Hiromu Takahashi, who's not too far behind Fujita.

Hiromu has a similar record to Wato, with two big losses weighing heavily on him. He just doesn't have the score lead support him. What he does have, though, is the power to ensure that he doesn't fall behind in score, because he has a match with current block leader Master Wato. If he wins there, he personally ensures that he can get the top score of the block. He'd just have to survive Robbie X, and hope that neither Akira nor Fujita make 12. They won't be facing each other in the final stretch, so there's a decent chance that neither does, but if one or the other does, it's game over for Hiromu.

4) Clark Connors

• 8 pts; 4 wins, 3 losses
• 11.7% to go to the finals
  • 10.9% as sole #1
  • 0.8% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Master Wato [10]
• Worst Losses: Hiromu Takahashi [8]
• Upcoming matches:
  • vs Francesco Akira (May 25)
  • vs Kosei Fujita (May 27)

Now we have Clark Connors.

Clark Connors has the distinction of needing to face two top contenders in both of his remaining matches. He'll be facing Akira tomorrow, and Fujita on Tuesday. These are both highly important matches, but winning them both will clear the way significantly toa finals appearance for Connors. His only problems then would be Hiromu also making 12, or Wato making 14.

No bad odds, but the prospect of facing both Akira and Fujita one after another and needing to beat both will be tough for Connors. We'll see if he can deal with it.

5) Francesco Akira

• 8 pts; 4 wins, 3 losses
• 7.5% to go to the finals
  • 5.5% as sole #1
  • 2.0% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Hiromu Takahashi [8]
• Worst Losses: Master Wato [10], Kosei Fujita [8]
• Upcoming matches:
  • vs Clark Connors (May 25)
  • vs KUSHIDA (May 27)

The last of our 8-pointers, and our serious contenders, is Francesco Akira.

Akira has the biggest hill to climb among the wrestlers with 8 or more points. He's the only one among them to have lost to block leader Wato, meaning that he pretty much needs to outscore Wato to make the finals. That entails him winning twice and Wato losing twice. If Akira loses just once, he's out, and if Wato wins once, he's also out, so that'sa tough situation to deal with.

If that happens, though, then Wato is mostly in the clear. He will at least match Hiromu, winning a tie break, and he'll eliminate Connors as a contender, having beaten him. His only other issue is Fujita, who owns a win over him. As long as Fujita doesn't make 12, then Akira is fine, but should they both hit 12, then Fujita gains the advantage and goes to the finals.

It's a tough road for Akira, but there is still a light at the end of that tunnel. It just might be snuffed out on this next show.

6) Yoshinobu Kanemaru

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 4 losses
• 0.8% to go to the finals
  • 0.1% as sole #1
  • 0.7% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Kosei Fujita [8], Clark Connors [8], Francesco Akira [8]
• Worst Losses: Hiromu Takahashi [8]
• Upcoming matches:
  • vs KUSHIDA (May 25)
  • vs Master Wato (May 27)

As we move on to our 6-pointers, we begin with Yoshinobu Kanemaru.

Kanemaru has a remarkable record against the current top 5 contenders, having beaten 3 of them and having an open match against one, only losing out to Hiromu. This record allows Kanemaru to have a solid chance to win the block outright, but only if the max score ends up being 10, and he's there at the top.

It's still a bit messy, though. If there are no draws, then at the very least, Hiromu, Wato, and at least one of Connors, Akira, and Fujita will be there as well. There are some messy ties in there, but Kanemaru would be in a solid position in most of them, so he has that going for him.

7) Robbie X

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 4 losses
• 0.4% to go to the finals
  • 0.03% as sole #1
  • 0.3% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Kosei Fujita [8], Yoshinobu Kanemaru [6]
• Worst Losses: Master Wato [10], Clark Connors [8], Francesco Akira [8]
• Upcoming matches:
  • vs Dragon Dia (May 25)
  • vs Hiromu Takahashi (May 27)

We now discuss Robbie X, who also amazingly still has a chance to take sole block leadership of A Block.

A lot of it runs on the same principles as Kanemaru, since he did beat Kanemaru. He has also beaten Fujita, and will have beaten Hiromu in this scenario, giving Robbie a few outs in a 10-max block.

Again, like Kanemaru, it's a long shot, but it exists.

8) Dragon Dia

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 4 losses
• 0.05% to go to the finals in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Hiromu Takahashi [8], Clark Connors [8], Yoshinobu Kanemaru [6]
• Worst Losses: Master Wato [10], Kosei Fujita [8], Francesco Akira [8]
• Upcoming matches:
  • vs Robbie X (May 25)
  • vs Ninja Mack (May 27)

Now we have the 6-pointers with very outside shots at the finals.

Dragon Dia's hopes at the finals are very slim at this point. 10 points is already a tough score to win on, and on top of that, his win-loss record does him no favors. Hiromu will necessarily be on 10 in this scenario, so that helps, but so will Wato. Fujita and Akira are also likely to factor in, which are bad. Connors and Kanemaru might, but that's not a guarantee.

Needless to say, it's all a mess for Dia. We'll see if he makes it through Sunday.

9) KUSHIDA

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 4 losses
• 0.005% to go to the finals in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Kosei Fujita [8], Dragon Dia [8]
• Worst Losses: Master Wato [10], Hiromu Takahashi [8], Clark Connors [8], Robbie X [6]
• Upcoming matches:
  • vs Yoshinobu Kanemaru (May 25)
  • vs Francesco Akira (May 27)

The last of the 6-pointers is Kushida.

Kushida has one of the lowest chances of making it to the finals while still technically being able to factor into the decision in all my years of doing these analyses. It relies on several draw results and major upsets. It may as well be zero, but it's not technically zero, so I have to report it. Honestly, I'm not sure if he even is alive, as I haven't properly re-verified the draws.

Again, I'll tackle this if he survives the night.

10) Ninja Mack

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 5 losses
• Eliminated from contention
• Upcoming matches:
  • vs Kosei Fujita (May 25)
  • vs Dragon Dia (May 27)

The only true elimination in a Block is Ninja Mack, who has no hope of factoring into the finals decision. He does have at least one significant match left, and that's against Kosei Fujita. Maybe he can play spoiler? We'll see.

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I usually go over draws in detail here, but considering the time pressure I'm working under, I'll mostly skip it. The biggest ties left in A Block are up to 5-ways only, so it's not too spicy.

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What's Next

The top 3 A Block matches on this next show are the ones to look out for.

Ninja Mack vs Kosei Fujita is a simple one. Mack has the opportunity to play spoiler, and Fujita is fighting to stay relevant. There's some stakes here, but not as much as the rest.

Things ramp up next, with Francesco Akira vs Clark Connors. Both men are very much alive at this point, but the loser of this match may as well kiss their finals hopes goodbye. This one will be the most tense, I think, so keep an eye out for this one.

Lastly, we have Hiromu challenging the block leader Master Wato, hoping to take the lead for himself. While Wato can't be eliminated here, a win would still be very valuable. Can he overcome a Hiromu who needs to win to stay alive though?

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That'll do for A Block. I'm gonna keep this outro short. I still have to write the B Block post now, so watch out for that in a bit.

Until then, thanks for reading! See you next post.