Commentary: ‘Mr Japan’ is entitled to be furious with Trump’s copy-and-paste tariffs

8 comments

1. Anyone with a brain is. It’s *how* retaliation occurs towards Netanyahu’s orange toilet seat that matters, however.

   The world itself is overwhelmingly right to be angry at everything Trump does, but in the last 6 months it hasn’t really done much in the way of good either

2. Channel news asia? Apparently commentary just means “Opinion.” Very wordy and not well executed I’m afraid. Even AI could do better.

3. Trump forgot to include his crypto wallet address in the letter. Might speed things up if included.

4. U.S.–Japan trade relations are like two neighbors with the same bad habit: one builds a giant, ugly wall overnight and brags about it; the other installs hidden fences under the garden and smiles while saying, “Everyone’s welcome.” Trump’s tariffs are the loud, visible kind of protectionism that grabs headlines and picks fights. Japan’s version is quiet and refined layers of rules, paperwork, and “standards” that politely say no thanks to foreign competition. The result is the same: “Stay out.” One just yells it. The other whispers. Both are playing the same game: deeply self-interested, nationalistic strategies meant to protect domestic industries. The danger isn’t the tactic. It’s the erosion of trust between supposed allies who, in reality, are quietly competing while pretending to cooperate. I like Japan, because it’s calm, beautiful and respectful. I like the U.S. because it acts loud, arrogant and messy. The truth is: likability isn’t morality, it’s presentation. The U.S. is a wolf and Japan is a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

5. Mr Japan is deeply unpopular domestically though

6. To those not in the know what Trump is pretty simple, it’s “pump and dump” in reverse.

   Normally with “pump and dump” some media personality buys up a bunch of cheap stock, then goes on TV and talks it up as being the greatest thing since sliced bread (when it isn’t). A lot of people go out and buy the stock, and his “pumps” up the price artificially. The person then “dumps” all the stock they bought cheap at a massive profit. Of course the stock isn’t worth what the personality claims it is, and a lot of people get hurt, but the media personality doesn’t care.

   What Trump is doing is the same idea, but in reverse. First Trump tells all his buddies what he’s going to do, and he announces massive tariffs. People dump their stock in the affected industries, expecting that the tariffs will have a negative effect on stock prices. Trump’s buddies all know the drop is coming, and buy up stock at a lower price. Then a few weeks later Trump announces the tariffs are suspended, or cancelled, and the stock price pumps back up to its old levels. Trump and his buddies make billions because they know what’s going to happen and when.

   Now this isn’t anything new. Dishonest politicians who know what bills are being written and if they’re going to pass have been doing this for ages on both a state and national level. There’s a reason that politicians come into politics moderately wealth and leave much richer.

   But a bill can take years to pass. Trump has figured out (or more probably someone told him how to do this) that a social media post from the toilet announcing new tariffs achieves the same thing as a new law passing. Stock market prices tumble, and his buddies snatch up the cheaper stock knowing that in a couple of weeks Trump will reverse his decision.

   Why reverse it? Because Trump knows that he can’t keep on raising tariffs infinitely or the US economy would die – it does need a lot of stuff from other countries. So he raises the tariffs then drops the tariffs, then raises them again.

   A lot of people have got wise to what he’s doing – it has nothing to do with international trade, it’s market manipulation on a global scale. The market isn’t reacting as strongly as before, because more and more traders are just holding onto stock knowing that Trump will reverse his decision in a few weeks.

   On a basic level the “tariff war” isn’t real, it’s about Trump and his buddies manipulating the market.

   But the damage Trump is doing to the US economy (and global trade) is very real and very serious. But he doesn’t care. He doesn’t care about the jobs being lost in the USA or other countries as manufacturers struggle to deal with the very real impact of these tariffs. Even if the disruption is just a few weeks a lot of manufacturers work on a “Just-in-time” (JIT) model for supplies.

   How JIT works is that manufacturers try to time shipments so that stuff arrives as they need it. Why? Well let’s say you’re Toyota making a car. You make the body, engine, etc. But there’s lots of stuff you don’t make, like the tires. They don’t have a huge rubber tree plantation or a tire making factory. But tires take up a lot of space, right? Anyone who has a spare set of winter tires knows this. Now if you’re rolling a thousand cars off the production line a day that’s 4,000 tires lying around. That’s a LOT of space, and that means buying up extra land to build a warehouse, taxes and maintenance on that building, etc. JIT basically says, “Hey, if we have the tires arrive JUST as we need them then we don’t need that extra warehouse and we can cut costs!”

   Now obviously JIT requires really precise logistics. If those tires are late then production stops. And this is the real problem with Trump’s tariffs. Basically he’s messing with the JIT production model and logistics. Every time he pulls one of this market manipulation trick manufacturers’ logistics departments have to recheck their sums and find the best supplier at the best price, reorder stuff, and do a mass of work. They do this because manufacturing doesn’t operate off huge profit margins, particularly in high-competition areas. This majorly messes with JIT because there’s always an adjustment period with a new supplier. Trump says he’s trying to help manufacturing in the USA, but actually he’s killing manufacturing.

   Sorry for the long post, but this is really important.

7. Ishiba is the greatest PM in Japan’s history. He has the full backing of the people. Whatever problems with trade talks are 100% Trump’s fault. When people say Ishiba is “feckless” they mean he is incapable of feck. /s

8. Start selling US securities, regularly, every week. Make it clear this will continue until this BS stops.