Hello r/njpw

Welcome to my closing posts for this year's G1 Climax . We have just one day each of A Block and B Block action, as well as the final playoffs to cap everything off.

Today, I'll be discussing A Block. Originally, I was going to cover both blocks in one post. However, because of time restraints and the amount of writing I've had to do, I've been forced to split it up into two, so today will be just A Block, and my next and final post will cover B Block and other closing topics.

This post will be a rundown of all the potential outcomes.

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As usual, you may also view my G1 Climax 35 results summary page here. I'm manually updating it as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a summary of the top 20 best matches of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings).

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A Block Standings

We had two do-or-die matches on the last A Block show, and, well, two people did end up getting eliminated from contention. Taichi and Sanada lost both their matches, and now the two ex-Just N Guys are out of the running.

It's not all bad for former Just N Guys, as through the results of the night, Yuya Uemura has shot up to the top of A Block, with the best chance of taking #1. He and the other 7 wrestlers in A Block on 8+ points are still fighting for the playoffs, so let's see all the possibilities.

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With 5 matches that can go one of 3 ways determining the outcome of 3 playoffs placements, there's a lot to go over. There are 38 different possible outcome to A Block, so going through each of them would be tedious. I'll just try to summarize things as best as I can.

1) Yuya Uemura And Evil are guaranteed playoffs spots if they win or draw.

Being the block leader on the last day has its benefits. For Uemura and Evil, that means having the opportunity to not rely on any other results in order to qualify for the playoffs. As commentary says, they have "control over their own destiny", meaning if they win (or even draw) their match, they move on to the playoffs.

The only thing that would change is their placements. If Uemura wins, or if Uemura draws and Evil doesn't win, then Uemura wins the #1 spot. If Uemura draws and Evil wins, though, then he'll be #2 and Evil takes #1. Evil also takes #1 if he wins or draws and Uemura loses. Otherwise, if they both win, or if Evil draws and Uemura doesn't lose, then he'll have to settle for #2.

That's not to say that that they don't go to the playoffs if they lose either. Hell, Uemura can still take #1 even if he does lose, and Evil's best on a loss is #2. more on those later. The point is that, for either man, getting above 10 punches their playoffs ticket.

2) Getting to 10 points is almost necessary

In general, 10 points is the effective target for everyone, especially with the Tsuji vs Moloney match. Should that match not draw, we will have 3 people on 10, and so that will be the score necessary to make the playoffs.

However, it'll still be tough, though, as most outcomes end with more than one person finishing with 10 points, so tie-breaks will likely be crucial. The only way for there to be less than two people with 10 points is if every 8-pointer loses or draws their match, with the only 8-pointer winning is either Tsuji or Moloney (again, because they're fighting each other).

I say almost necessary, because there are a handful of outcomes where 9 is the qualifying score. However, seeing as it's an odd-numbered score, those outcomes heavily rely on draws, and the aforementioned Tsuji-Moloney match must end in a draw. It's an unlikely occurrence, but I'm mentioning it for the sake of completion.

Let's see how everyone does if they have 10 points.

3) Uemura on 10

As unfortunate as an outcome as this is, it's not that bad for Uemura. Yes, it means he would've lost to Finlay, but he'd still be a very strong 10-pointer. Of what would be his 4 losses, two of them are from people who can't make 10 (Taichi and Sanada), giving him a lot of potential tie-breaking power. It's possible to utilize all five of his wins to push him into the playoffs even on 10.

There are only two matches that can push Uemura out of the top 3, and that's Evil vs Tanahashi ad Tsuji vs Newman. With Evil vs Tanahashi, he vastly prefers Tanahashi to beat Evil. Uemura's beaten the both of them, and Tanahashi beating Evil puts both of them at 10. If Evil makes points, though, not only does that put Evil ahead by default, but it also means Tanahashi doesn't make 10, depriving Uemura of some tie-breaking power. With Tsuji vs Newman, it's a matter of records. Uemura beat Newman, and not Tsuji, so Newman winning would be better for Uemura.

The only way Uemura doesn't make the finals is with these two matches. If Uemura loses to Finlay, Tsuji beats Newman, and Evil beats or draws Tanahashi, then Uemura is out. It puts Evil on 11+, and puts Uemura on 10 with Tsuji and Finlay, both of whom he has lost to. It doesn't matter if Oiwa or Oleg make 10, as Tsuji and Finlay benefit from their inclusion as well.

For all the other possibilities, Uemura is clear into the playoffs. Some of them are in weird ties (for example, there's a lot of people on 10, and he and Finlay have the top number of head-to-head wins. it's technically a tie, though with Finlay having beaten him, Finlay would likely go over him, lest they have another tie-breaking match), and a couple are in deadlock 3-way ties for #2 or #3, so there may be a tie-breaking match there where Uemura doesn't make the playoffs, but he'd at least make it past the block phase.

4) Evil on 10

Similar to Uemura, Evil's not too bad on 10, but there's only one result that could really screw over Evil, and that's Uemura vs Finlay. In a reverse of Uemura's situation, where Uemura benefits from Evil & Tanahashi at 10, Evil does not want Uemura and Finlay at 10 after having lost to both. In this case, Evil wants Uemura to break past 10, getting rid of two unfavorable losses on top of what would be a Tanahashi loss.

Now, there are some ways Evil factors into the playoffs decision with Uemura and Finlay on 10, but it'd be through some messy ties for #2 or #3. Really it'd be much easier for Uemura to draw or beat Finlay. As a matter of act, Uemura beating Finlay would guarantee Evil's finals spot just as much as Evil beating Tanahashi would, even if Evil loses to Tanahashi. Sure, it might involve a messy 3-way tie here and there, but at least Evil won't be dead in the block.

5) Finlay on 10

As an 8-pointer, Finlay needs to hit 10 points in order to qualify for the playoffs. Luckily for him, winning his last match will give him both 10-points and a very powerful tie-break in the block leader Yuya Uemura. With that, he's practically a lock for the playoffs, even being able to use them to take #1.

However, he can still miss out. His biggest problems are Callum Newman and Ryohei Oiwa. Within A Block, Newman and Oiwa aren't big threats. In fact, they're the two least likely to make the playoffs among people still in contention. However, the problem is that they both beat Finlay, while also losing a bunch of other matches. If they both make 10 points, it'll give Finlay trouble, potentially nullifying his win over Uemura in the process.

The most straightforward example of this is if Evil beats Tanahashi to make 12, Taichi beats Oleg to keep him from making 10, Newman beats Tsuji to hit 10, and Oiwa beats Sanada to hit 10. This puts Evil at #1 automatically, while Uemura, Oiwa, Newman, and Finlay are all on 10. This setup puts Finlay at a disadvantage, with himself only having one head-to-head win (Uemura), while Uemura and Oiwa have two each (Oiwa & Newman, and Newman & Finlay, respectively), kicking Finlay out of the playoffs. This is the most clear-cut example, though there are other cases where Finlay loses a tie for 2nd or 3rd in a similar way. As a result, Finlay would rather they both lose and stay at 8.

6) Tanahashi on 10

For Tanahashi, his biggest obstacles are his losses, of which he has many. Despite being on 8 points, two of Tanahashi's wins come from eliminated wrestlers (Taichi and Sanada), so he has few wins to lean on. Fortunately, the ones he does are pretty good. His win over Finlay can help cancel out his loss to Uemura, and getting to 10 means beating Evil, which would be great. He also beat Tsuji, which might come in handy. However, losses to Oleg, Oiwa, and Newman make a lot of potential roadblocks for Tanahashi on the last day. The good news is that none of them are guaranteed to make 10, and only one of them making 10 would be fine. However, if two or all three make 10, Tanahashi would be buried beneath his past, and fail to make the playoffs. However, if everything goes just right, the Ace might just be able to take the top spot in the block.

7) Tsuji on 10

The loss to Finlay has done quite the number on Tsuji's playoffs hopes. Losses to Evil, Tanahashi, and Finlay all come together to ensure that the best that Tsuji can do is tie for #2.

• If Uemura and Evil make points, Tsuji is capped at #3
• If Uemura wins, but Evil loses to Tanahashi, then Tsuji suffers under the the two head-to-head losses to each of them
• If Evil wins, but Finlay beats Uemura, Finlay takes #2 with wins over Uemura and Tsuji
• With help from Oleg & Oiwa in tie-breaks, Tsuji can muster up enough wins to tie Finlay in head-to-head victories for 2nd, but the loss to Finlay will likely just push Tsuji back down to 3rd.

As a result, if Tsuji makes the playoffs, it's most likely to be as #3. Luckily for Tsuji, he is also the most likely person in A Block to finish at #3, so that's not too bad.

8) Oleg on 10

Boltin Oleg is where we chances really slip down. He doesn't have a lot of good wins either, and losing to both 10 pointers as well as Evil and Tsuji give him very few options, and even among those, it's slim pickings. He could finish in a 3-way tie for #2 If Uemura breaks 10, Tanahashi beats Evil, Tsuji and Newman draw, and all the other 8-pointers lose, but otherwise, he's more likely to end up in 3rd, losing to Evil in tie breaks.

9) Newman on 10

Newman's in a curious case down near the bottom of A Block. He has less ways of making the playoffs compared to Tsuji & Oleg, but unlike them, he can take #2 without being caught in a deadlock tie, and that's thanks to a couple of things. First, he's the only 8-pointer facing another 8-pointer. That means that it's possible for all the other 8-pointers to lose, leaving him as the only one on 10, and the distinct #3 in the block.

Another case is a funny one, where Tanahashi and Finlay (his only two wins of consequence) beat Evil and Uemura, respectively. That puts the 5 of them at 10. However, among the 5, Uemura has 3 head-to-head wins (Tanahashi, Newman, and Evil), while Evil has only one (Newman), leaving the middle three tied with two head-to-head wins each. This puts Uemura at #1, and Newman, Tanahashi, and Finlay tied for #2. However, since Newman beat both Tanahashi and Finlay, he'd probably claim #2 for himself. It's a bit of a fringe case, and it comes apart if Oleg makes 10, but it's a funny scenario to me.

10) Oiwa on 10

Oiwa's situation is very similar to Newman's. He has the same win list (Tanahashi & Finlay), but he also beat Newman, so a lot of his results are Newman's scenarios, but with Oiwa leap-frogging Newman and stealing his thunder.

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Results Table

This is usually where I just lay out every possible outcome for the playoffs. However, with 5 matches and 3 slots to fill, I didn't like how the table was looking. As a result, I've decided to change things up for this year. Instead of putting the results table here in reddit, I've moved it to my G1 Climax 35 Google Doc, where I can lay things out a bit more nicely. You may also view the Google Doc through this link, and go to the sheet names "A Block Last Day Outcomes". At this moment, I'm still cleaning some things up and fixing the layout, but it is complete for all the potential playoffs outcomes.

I hope this works for all of you.

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That's all for today. I'm off to work on the B Block post now. There's a lot to talk about on that side as well.

Until then, thanks for reading! See you next post.