For the fiscal year ending March 2026, publicly listed companies collectively anticipate a net profit of 44.94 trillion yen, reflecting a 7.8% decrease compared to the previous fiscal year, according to data compiled by SMBC Nikko Securities. This marks the first decline in six years, attributed mainly to increased costs from high U.S. tariffs.
The forecast was based on earnings reports from 1,143 companies, with the exclusion of 26 companies that did not disclose their outlook for the fiscal year.
Breaking down the net profit predictions by industry, sectors including automobiles are expected to see a decrease. The automotive industry, in particular, anticipates reduced profits. Shipping companies are also facing challenges, with an expected 54.1% decrease in profit to 555 billion yen. Similarly, the steel industry is expecting a decline of 65.8%, with profits projected at 229.9 billion yen.
In contrast, the pharmaceutical industry is set to see a 23.1% increase in profits, driven by strong sales of cancer treatments. Additionally, banks are expected to experience a 10.4% profit increase due to improved interest rate margins following the Bank of Japan’s policy rate hike.
Overall, the 1,143 companies analyzed for their 2026 fiscal year performance forecasts make up 99.7% of all final data. The combined net profit forecast for these firms is 44.94 trillion yen. For the period ending in March 2026, the predicted net profit, once adjusting for a 46-company exclusion from the final tally due to lack of forecasts, shows a 7.8% decline year-on-year. The cumulative net profit for 2026 is projected at 44.94 trillion yen. Additionally, as of August 15, those that did report expect a combined net profit of 4.491 trillion yen for the 2026 fiscal year.
by MagazineKey4532