I've lived in Japan for 15 years, long enough to see patterns repeat, and the newest stories about Japan's openness to immigration fits a trend that has been visible for years, just smothered in PR. Apparently, a majority now says Japan should not expand foreign labor. I do not read this as hostility toward foreigners. I read it as confirmation that Japan Inc. is choosing contraction instead of change.
IMO, this is a structural issue, not a cultural one. The core institutions of Japan (what I always call "Japan Inc.") are built on rigid hierarchies, slow decision cycles, and seniority based leadership pipelines that cannot keep pace with a modern economy. Real reform would require uncomfortable adjustments, from digital upskilling to breaking old labor norms. Rather than take those steps, the system is protecting itself by shrinking. And, let's face it, even if Japan Inc. tried it wouldn't have the ability to actually, meaningfully affect change in nearly enough time to reverse things.
But, that's what interests me: the opportunity this creates outside the system. As the center tightens, the edges are opening faster than people realize. Rural towns, overlooked regions, and underused industries are becoming the most flexible and opportunity-rich parts of the country. The future of Japan will not be shaped in boardrooms in Tokyo. It will be shaped in the spaces Japan Inc. is no longer capable of managing. (Adjacently, I can't stop thinking about how this resembles Emperor Godaigo and the Kenmu Restoration, but that is a longer story for another time.)
So, I'm curious: If the establishment refuses to evolve, who should claim the future that opens up around it?
by Tokyometal
16 comments
Japan will shrink, but remain Japan.
Obviously not the foreigners, if they don’t have a legal avenue to stay in the country
Probably not the young. They are either molded by the established education system, and the more outspoken ones are probably looking outside of the country
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Japan Inc is appropriate because it’s likely corporate entities will end up buying and pretty much owning parts of Japan for peanuts as the country gets more desperate
Opinion: … if China takes Taiwan, Japan is next…. (HK-> Taiwan-> JP)
So, in my opinion, and this is just an opinion… we might have like 20 years left of Japan.
Many weebs would have fought to defend Japan and their ways even if they never fully understood them, but Japan chose a different path.
Japan wants to believe they will stay Japan but smaller. In my opinion, Japan will get smaller, and then eaten.
A few things here:
The people of Japan aren’t ‘Japan Inc.’. Public opinion has turned against foreigners (although it could easily turn back when someone else is PM), but businesses’ opinion has changed and they will continue to push for immigration, free trade, open borders etc. as they boost profits.
At the same time, yes corporate Japan is full of stuffy old suits and outdated, inefficient work practices. Whether you think that’s a death sentence for Japan’s economy or an opportunity for slow and steady managed decline free of catastrophe is up to you.
I think there is an opportunity for “the fringes” to take some degree of control (I could name a few art spaces and bands who are blowing open new paths), although realistically they stand the best chance by going international and grabbing as much strong foreign currency as they can, eg by selling overseas, catering to tourists.
Lmao, are you following what’s happening in the world? As if „elsewhere” isn’t choosing decline.
Before corona, the decline of Japan was definitely being thought of by people in the tourist industry for example. In the countryside of Japan there are beautiful temples, waterfalls, all kinds of tourist spots that very few foreign tourists ever go to. The people in these areas are desperate for money because there is pretty much nothing else there and almost no reason for those villages to exist.
I went on a trip to visit some of these places that was organised by a tourist company to get feedback on what foreigners thought about the locations. They were beautiful and if you took somebody there they would probably enjoy it more than a crowded temple in Kyoto, just getting there was a bit of a problem if you don’t have a car or a bus doesn’t take you.
So, these places are naturally going to fall into decline if they don’t get any visitors. Domestic visitors are falling and foreign visitors just never make it there. Also less people will want to live and work in those areas so getting people to work there is even more of a problem.
I wonder what the final outcome will be. The busiest people are going to be the Amazon drivers who are delivering the groceries to these hermits living in the countryside.
The whole world is running on the false belief we can grow indefinitely. We have to shrink, this is inevitable. Oil is not infinite, resources are not infinite, energy is not infinite.
Opening to immigration is just a short sighted move, despite what most people believe here. Sure it can help keep high GDP, but this is absolutely not the right approach for locals. This is not about racism nor xenophobia, it’s about responsibility. Why should a country like Japan ask others to come and fix their shortcomings?
Japanese people in general are taught from an early age to take their own responsibilities and try not to bother people around. If they have to die, so be it. What’s the problem here? It’s only the ultra rich who want to bring more cheap people here, to hoard more. Not sure if this is religion biased, but it feels like western countries are afraid of dying. While people here are fine with it, it’s part of life, we are not eternal. Dying to better regrow is what’s going to happen to Japan, and the rest of the world ultimately because we will run out of oil in the next 50 years anyway. Meaning no planes, far fewer trucks and boats, and no cities as we know them of today.
Personally I think a culture like we have in Japan will actually be better adapted to what’s coming. The society will hold together more strongly thanks to its homogeneity. At least that’s the bet I am making by staying here.
Immigration cannot fix a demographic problem.
Canada tried a massive immigration wave and it made everyone poorer and angrier
If there is to be a fix found it will take a different solution.
Japanese understand this and are betting they can find a different solution.
I’ve been in Japan in corporate, white collar work, for 25 years. I agree with your observations, but not so much with regard to regions. Or to put it differently – I am just not seeing that.
Mostly, I think Japan gets smaller, but the mega companies that embrace DX, new processes, new talent acquisition strategies, and maybe regional M&A have an opportunity to either stay on top or displace. There are some larger startups that are competitive too. And given globalization 1.0 is over, Japan may have a political advantage as supply chains and trade relations shift – e.g. – in semicon, data centers.
I think you’re putting too much stock in just one survey. In contrast there are these stories:
[**Farms struggling to attract Japanese** ***workers*****, utilizing ‘unauthorized’** ***foreign*** **labor**](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251128/p2a/00m/0bu/040000c)
[**Foreign** ***workers*** **keep businesses running in Oizumi, Gunma Pref.**](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251119/p2a/00m/0na/011000c)
[**Japanese shun overtime: Local business owners appreciate** ***foreign*** **labor**](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251118/p2a/00m/0na/022000c)
Always have a Plan B for yourself. This country doesn’t care about you, especially if you’re a foreigner.
Infinite growth is the problem. Japan is fine.
Japan not being in a rush to import the 3rd world as most countries are doing is a good thing.
It’s not selling out its citizenry. Admirable.
I do not understand the fascination the rest of the world has with Japan’s population and economy. It’s so tiring hearing advice someone who has an obvious self interest. Some people feel like they are losing control of their own country so they’re trying to idealise Japan is a nation that does bad things to people who have the dark skin that they dislike. On the total opposite side you have people that hate Japanese people, and Japanese mannerisms but still want to live Japan and they want to make it easier for other who share their hate for Japanese people to enter and stay in the country.
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