I own a 90m² apartment in a central Tokyo location. Bought in late 2019 for ¥80M, now estimated worth ~¥180-220M (mid ¥200M). Remaining mortgage ~¥55M on a sweet fixed loan (1% for 30 more years). Current total monthly cost ~¥238k.
The building (1970s vintage) is moving toward a possible rebuild. Vote pending, but if it goes ahead:
- Option to keep similar size but pay ~¥170M top-up
- OR downsize to ~60m² at no extra cost
- Either way: 2-year evacuation period (extra ~¥15M in temp housing + moving while still paying mortgage)
My proportional land share is sizable and drives a lot of the value.
Options:
-
Sell now
Net cash: ~¥130-150M
Rent 100m² apartment place nearby (~¥800k/mo)
Invest the proceeds (leaning S&P 500) -
Downsize to 60m² (no extra payment)
Ride out the 2 years, get a modern smaller unit, sell around 2028-2029 for ~¥150-180M → net ~¥135-155M cash then
Rent + invest after -
Pay the ¥170M top-up to keep current size
New loan ~¥225M total, payments jump to ~¥700-800k/mo
Keep full size + land share in new building
Quick 20-year projections (S&P 10% return, Central Tokyo rent growing 5-7%/yr):
- Option 1: ~¥550-650M net gain
- Option 2: ~¥650-750M net gain (highest – gets rebuild uplift for free)
- Option 3: ~¥300-450M equity gain in property (lowest)
Leaning toward Option 2 as the best bang for buck, but wondering what people who’ve been through Tokyo condo rebuilds think.
Any input? Thanks!
by Lunchisnice