JJapan News

Behind the China-Japan Taiwan conflict: For all the rhetoric, China’s penalties on Japan have been minor and not involved sanctions on rare earths. “The Chinese government is constantly forced to ‘create outrage’ for domestic political purposes while simultaneously engaging in damage control”.

  • November 27, 2025


https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/91d70e884e35a2750a982caaf8494ab028c9ed97?page=1

Great article, highly recommended. Some key takeaways:

-China is actually doing very little to Japan over this relative to what they could do. The rhetoric mostly targets Takaichi personally rather than Japan more broadly

-Xi is wary of Takaichi because she is so anti-CCP. China kept a foothold in Japan politics via the LDP's pro-China coalition partner Komeito, but they are out of the coalition now and her new appointees are all hawks.

-At the same time, Trump has been much more open to treating Taiwan as its own country and has broke down regulations restricting how much American officials can talk to people from Taiwan. While the US officially still supports "One China", more and more Taiwan looks like a separate country internationally.

-Takaichi is fully with Trump on this. At the recent summit she followed up a photo with Xi with a 20 minute conversation with Taiwan's leader.

-Xi has to tread carefully. One China Policy is a big part of the CCP's legitimacy, so he has to express anger. But serious sanctions on Japan would only draw the Japan-US-Taiwan alliance closer together and further distance Japan from China's influence.

-And sanctions on Japan would hurt China's economy, too. Which they can't afford right now because their economy is showing signs of strain, and worsening conditions could cause unrest at home.

-As a result the Chinese government must create outrage over her statements publicly, all while downplaying the matter in terms of real economic consequences.

by jjrs

14 comments

  1. The things one has to make up inside their head to justify a gaffe from the politician one is fanboying over.

  2. If they play their biggest trump card, rare earths, and it still doesn’t work, the next step will be to suspend trade or take military action. It will be interesting to see China turn into North Korea.

  3. China’s “punishment” on Japan has not yet started, because the gov is waiting for Takaichi to retract her words. There is nothing Chinese gov needs to be careful for. The Taiwan issue existed since 1949 and had seen multiple wars, and the US is too weak in this area to stop another Taiwan war.

    Japan becomes unreasonably confident especially regarding a potential nuclear war scenario.

  4. The amount of cope to justify Takaichi’s rhetoric is just….

    China doesnt need to punish Takaichi for her rhetoric; she’s already doing fine just by herself.

  7. The US midterm elections are next November, and a deal was just reached with China in Busan. Congress is about to adjourn, and if Trump fails to secure large orders from China next April, and Xi Jinping abandons his trip to the US, the Republican Party will suffer a crushing defeat in the midterm elections, having failed to win any elections since 2025. Under these circumstances, how could the US possibly continue to support Sanae Takaichi, damaging US-China trade relations?

    The US position emphasizes the US-Japan alliance but doesn’t support Takaichi; China’s approach is to target Takaichi but not Japan, and all sanctions can be lifted overnight.

    A sober analysis reveals that, to be subject to US tariffs, be an enemy of Russia, and also alienate China, and simultaneously benefit no one from the US, China, or Russia, I know of only one country so far.

  8. This whole thing is a rather fascinating example of old Asian “hate-traditions” coming into conflict with modern economics.
    Both countries need to feed nationalism to their domestic audiences while keeping their business relationships going

  10. Half a million visas isn’t a minor thing. Not that I’m not grateful that Japan isn’t going to be as crowded as it was the last winter holiday season.

  11. They already played the rare earth card in 2012. Japan has adapted. They don’t have anything else to escalate, only wumao rage posts.

  12. Playing the eternal victim while mutiplying the genocides and agressions on all levels possible.
    China has learned NOTHING from WW2.

  13. I think during the nuclear water ‘controversy’ people stopped wanting to travel to Japan
    Now, they have to actively cancel flights.

  14. The main thing which disturbed me is reading later she admitted her remarks on Taiwan were off the cuff, unplanned. It is one thing to make such an inflammatory remark as a calculated move. But a politician who can say something like that so thoughtlessly (if true) is a loose cannon that i would not trust if Japanese.

    To me it is indicative of bad skills in diplomacy, and perhaps blind arrogance. The kind that might start a misguided war. Not something one wants in a national leader in this age, or any age!

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