Hello r/njpw

Welcome back to my coverage of the BOSJ 32 block competition.

The race to the finals continues to be a tight one, in both A and B Block. Everyone is still technically in the running, and more than any other tournament I've covered, it really is anyone's game at this point. It's kind of wild.

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For those of you who are new to these, I make posts rounding up the possible outcomes for these round-robin tournaments. I look at the % odds of each team of making it out of the block phase (taking all results as equal), sometimes even taking draws into account (for this particular post, I won't be doing that just yet).

As usual, you may also view my BOSJ 32 results summary page here. I'm manually updating it as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a summary of the top 20 best matches of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings).

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Let's just get to the standings …

B Block Standings

Gedo, you don't make my job easy, do you.

Everything I said in my last post about A Block applies to B Block, seeing as the score layout is the same in both blocks: a sole block leader at 8 points, a sole person in last at 4, and the other 8 wrestlers in the block at 6. Again, that creates a very tight environment where it feels like anyone can claim that #1 spot and make the finals.

I'd be hard pressed to find another tournament in this format where so many people are still in the running at this point in the tournament. Everyone is still technically alive, and 18 wrestlers have a decent chance taking their block.

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So that's the lay of the land. Let's run down the block, starting with …

1) Nick Wayne

• 8 pts; 4 wins, 2 losses
• 38.1% to go to the finals
  • 33.8% as sole #1
  • 4.3% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Robbie Eagles [6], El Desperado [6], Ryusuke Taguchi [6]
• Worst Losses: Taiji Ishimori [6], Kevin Knight [6]

Nick Wayne continues to hold onto his block leadership in B Block, though he was stalled in extending his lead with his loss to Ishimori.

Still, Wayne is in a very favorable position in this block. Not only does he have the score lead, but all four of his wins are over current/former IWGP Jr champions, so he's likely to turn out positively should he get caught in a draw. Unfortunately, he couldn't capture a 5th with Ishimori, but we'll have to see if the four he already has will be enough.

2) YOH

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 13.3% to go to the finals
  • 10.3% as sole #1
  • 3.0% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: MAO [6], Kevin Knight [6], El Desperado [6]
• Worst Losses: Robbie Eagles [6], Ryusuke Taguchi [6]

We now move on to our many, many 6-pointers, starting with Yoh.

Now, I already wrote extensively about the state of 6-pointers on the A Block post. In short, they must walk the tightrope, and pretty much have to win every match from here on out.

Because of that, the people who rank highly here tend to have very big matches ahead. Case in point, Yoh has 3 high ranking people ahead, including one against current block leader Nick Wayne on the next BOSJ show. A win there would almost certainly put him in the lead. The loss to Sho becoming less relevant is also doing him some good.

Yoh has made it to the BOSJ finals once before. We'll see if he can ride the wave of beating Despe to another finals appearance.

3) Titan

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 11.8% to go to the finals
  • 8.8% as sole #1
  • 3.0% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: MAO [6], Taiji Ishimori [6], Ryusuke Taguchi [6]
• Worst Losses: Kevin Knight [6], Robbie Eagles [6], El Desperado [6]

Next up is another former finalist who didn't win the BOSJ, Titan.

The dissolution of LIJ hasn't seemed to affect Titan too much. He's put together a solid record thus far, and his best asset is that he has open matches against both of the guys ahead of him. Beating both of them would be immensely beneficial to Titan's finals hopes.

4) MAO

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 11.3% to go to the finals
  • 8.8% as sole #1
  • 2.5% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Taiji Ishimori [6], Kevin Knight [6], Ryusuke Taguchi [6]
• Worst Losses: YOH [6], Titan [6], El Desperado [6]

This tournament has been good to our outsiders, as the reps from AEW, CMLL, and now DDT with Mao have been doing very well in the first 2/3 of this tournament.

Unfortunately for Mao, he's gotten some pretty bad beats. Yoh and Titan are currently in favor, and Despe is the Jr. champ, so these losses might come back to bite Mao in the ass. It remains to be seen if that's his fate.

5) Taiji Ishimori

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 10.0% to go to the finals
  • 7.6% as sole #1
  • 2.4% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Nick Wayne [8], Robbie Eagles [6], El Desperado [6]
• Worst Losses: Titan [6], MAO [6], Ryusuke Taguchi [6]

Now we have Taiji Ishimori.

Ishimori started this tournament off a bit rough, but with wins over Eagles, Despe, and now Nick Wayne, he's come back to a solid position. We'll see if it's enough, or if his prior losses come back to haunt him.

6) Kevin Knight

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 9.2% to go to the finals
  • 7.3% as sole #1
  • 1.9% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Nick Wayne [8], Titan [6]
• Worst Losses: YOH [6], MAO [6], Robbie Eagles [6]

Kevin Knight was struggling in the early days of this tournament, dropping his first 3 matches. However, after beating Nick Wayne, he's been on a hot streak, but he'll need to keep the flame going if he wants to win this tournament. What's more, he doesn't have the highest quality set of wins. Nick Wayne is great, and Titan is good too, but a Sho win doesn't do much for him now. He'll need some luck in surviving a score tie.

7) Robbie Eagles

• 6 pts, 3 wins, 3 losses
• 8.9% to go to the finals
  • 6.1% as sole #1
  • 2.9% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: YOH [6], Titan [6], Kevin Knight [6]
• Worst Losses: Nick Wayne [8], Taiji Ishimori [6]

It's funny that both Robbies in this tournament are at #7 on my lists. What a nice coincidence.

This BOSJ run has ben a bit of a mixed bag for Eagles. He's got some solid wins on him, but the Nick Wayne loss is a significant problem. Hopefully, his wins will outweigh that loss in the end.

8) El Desperado

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 6.4% to go to the finals
  • 4.5% as sole #1
  • 1.8% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: Titan [6], MAO [6]
• Worst Losses: Nick Wayne [8], YOH [6], Taiji Ishimori [6]

It's wild to see the Jr champion this far down. Granted, because of the nature of the scores, it looks worse than it actually is, but it's still not great. Like Eagles, he's got an okay record, but he has less good wins than Eagles, and more bad losses, which will make it tough for the champ to take B Block.

9) Ryusuke Taguchi

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 6.3% to go to the finals
  • 4.3% as sole #1
  • 2.0% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: YOH [6], Taiji Ishimori [6]
• Worst Losses: Nick Wayne [8], Titan [6], MAO [6]

You know, despite his record, Taguchi has had a solid BOSJ so far. His early match against Ishimori is still one of the best of the tournament, and despite being 9th best here in terms of odds, he's still tied on 6 and only 2 points behind the leader. Sure, his record ain't great, and he's lost to 3 of the top 4, but it's not over yet for Coach Guch.

10) SHO

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 4 losses
• 0.8% to go to the finals
  • 0.2% as sole #1
  • 0.6% in a tie for #1
• Best Wins: YOH [6], Robbie Eagles [6]
• Worst Losses: Nick Wayne [8], Kevin Knight [6], El Desperado [6], Ryusuke Taguchi [6]

It's unfortunate to see how far SHO has fallen from last year's BOSJ. This time last year, he was Jr. Champion, and now, he's bottom of B Block.

Still, it's not over for Sho, and he's got a better chance of winning B Block than Ninja Mack does taking A Block. It's mostly because his last 3 matches are against major players (Mao, Titan, and Ishimori) Can Sho pull it off? Maybe. Just maybe.

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What's Next?

As in A Block, B Block is very tight. and the 6-pointers being at risk of elimination is just as true as well. Watch out for the 6-pointer vs 6-pointer matches, because the losers of those matches will struggle to take the block.

• Eagles vs Mao
• Knight vs Ishimori
• Despe vs Taguchi

We'll also be kicking things off in B Block with Sho vs Titan, and we're getting Nick Wayne take on Yoh, where Yoh is riding a wave of momentum, while Wayne is on a bit of a downturn. Can Yoh take advantage of the situation?

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That concludes the initial posts for both blocks. We've got 4 shows left before the final: two days of joint-block action, and a final day for each block. Stay tuned this weekend as we approach the end of the block competition, and we see who makes the finals of this years Best of the Super Juniors tournament.

Until then, thanks for reading! See you next post.