Hello r/njpw

Welcome to my final post for this year's G1 Climax. We'll be going over the standings and possibilities going into the final B Block day, looking at who can make it into the playoffs and what matches people need to watch out for.

B Block has reached it's final day, and things are a bit neater here than how A Block was going into its final day. Only 7 wrestlers are still in contention for a playoffs spot, and there are only 4 matches left to decide them. Still, there's a lot that can happen, so let's explore the possibilities.

———-

As usual, you may also view my G1 Climax 35 results summary page here. I'm manually updating it as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a summary of the top 20 best matches of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings).

———-

B Block Standings

To start with, let's quickly go over what everyone needs in order to make the playoffs. Consider this your tl;dr

• Zack Sabre Jr.
  • Already guaranteed to go to the playoffs
• Konosuke Takeshita
  • In if he wins
  • In if he draws and Umino & O-Khan don't draw (tie only)
  • In if he loses, Moloney & Takagi draw, and O-Khan wins (tie only)
  • In if he loses, Moloney & Takagi don't draw, and O-Khan wins
• Ren Narita
  • In if he wins
  • In if he draws, and Umino & O-Khan draw
  • In if he draws, and Umino & O-Khan don't draw (tie only)
  • In if he loses, Moloney & Takagi draw, and O-Khan wins
  • In if he loses, Takagi wins, and ZSJ wins or draws (tie only)
• Shota Umino
  • In if he wins
  • In if he draws
  • In if he loses, Moloney & Takagi draw, and Narita wins (tie only)
• Drilla Moloney
  • In if he wins, O-Khan wins, and Takeshita wins
• Great-O-Khan
  • In if he wins, Moloney & Takagi draw, and Narita wins (tie only)
  • In if he wins, Takagi wins, ZSJ wins or draws, and Takeshita wins (tie only)
  • In if he wins, Takagi wins, Yoshi-Hashi wins, and Takeshita wins
• Shingo Takagi
  • In if he wins, ZSJ wins or draws, O-Khan wins, and Takeshita wins (tie only)

There's still a lot there, but not nearly as much as A Block had going into the final show.

———-

With all that laid out, let's go over the details, starting with the block leader …

1) Zack Sabre Jr. – already a lock for the playoffs

With his win over Drilla Moloney ZSJ became the first person in the whole tournament to cement a spot in the playoffs. He becomes the first IWGP Heavyweight champion since Yuji Nagata in 2007 to advance past the block phase of the G1 Climax. He's also hoping to be the first IWGP Heavyweight champion since Kazuyuki Fujita in 2005 to take #1 in a block in a G1 Climax, and eventually the first IWGP Heavyweight champion since Kensuke Sasaki in 2000 to win the whole tournament.

The only thing that can change now for Zack is whether he finishes at #1, #2, or #3. If he beats Yoshi-Hashi he's locked-in at #1. Otherwise, his placement will depend on Narita and Umino, his two prior losses who can match his score. If neither of them win, then he maintains his #1 spot. If one of them wins, then he's bumped down to #2. If both of them win, then he'll have to settle for #3. As far a worst-case scenarios go, that's not too bad.

2) Konosuke Takeshita – in with a win OR an O-Khan win

Konosuke Takeshita is the most likely to make the playoffs among those not yet confirmed, though funnily enough, it's impossible for him to take #1. Losing to ZSJ means he either has immediately has an unfavorable tie break upon reaching 12, or ZSJ simply outscores him. His loss to Shota Umino, the only other person who can make 12 alongside him, further ensures that he can't take #1.

It's not all bad news for Takeshita, though. One good thing Takeshita has is he might become the second person to confirms their playoffs spot before their final match (after ZSJ), because if O-Khan beats Shota Umino, then Takeshita is guaranteed to go to the playoffs. His only issues as far as the playoffs are concerned are ZSJ (who will outscore him), Narita (who can beat him and overtake him), and Umino (who beat him already and so can break a score tie with him). Among all of these, ZSJ is already guaranteed to happen, and if the other two win, he'll fail to make the playoffs. Narita losing is within his control, but Umino will have to be taken care of by Great-O-Khan. If O-Khan does manage to beat Umino, though, then Takeshita will be confirmed for the playoffs, even if he loses.

The only other thing to go over with Takeshita is if he and Narita go to a draw. In that case, they'll be in an exact tie at 11, and their fate will depend on the result of Umino vs O-Khan. If O-Khan wins, then they'll be in a tie for 2nd. They'll both be in the playoffs, but New Japan will have to decide who takes #2 and #3. If Umino wins, then he'll overtake them, and they'll be tied for #3, at which point it's even more important to decide how to break the tie. However, if Umino & O-Khan draw, then Umino will also make 11 points, adding to the pile at #2. However, adding Umino does break the tie. Narita will be on top (beat Umino, drew Takeshita), and Umino will be in the middle (beat Takeshita, lost to Narita), while Takeshita sits at the bottom (drew Narita, lost to Umino). Since this would be a tie for 2nd place, the top two here will go to the playoffs, so Takeshita would miss out.

3) Ren Narita – in with a win/draw

Unlike Takeshita, Narita can't be confirmed for the playoffs with just one other wrestler's result. However, also unlike Takeshita, Narita can still take #1. To do so, he'll need to beat Takeshita, and ZSJ will have to lose to Yoshi-Hashi. With his block-topping 12 points and his wins over ZSJ, Umino, and Takeshita, he would definitively take #1. If ZSJ wins, then Narita would still be a lock, but he'll just be at #2.

Narita is also confirmed for the playoffs in a draw with Takeshita. I already outlined the possibilities in Takeshita's section. The only difference with Narita is that he would survive in the O-Khan-Umino-draw scenario.

Even if he loses to Takeshita, he won't be out of the running. However, his requirements will be much tighter. With ZSJ and Takeshita on 12+ in this scenario, he must win his tie break on 10. He'll first need O-Khan to beat Umino, keeping Umino on 10, and putting O-Khan on 10 as well. Narita's beaten both as well, so he wins that tie break. However, he has a bit of a problem with the Takagi-Moloney match. He's lost to both, so he wouldn't like either of them to make 10. Best case would be them going to a draw, preventing either from making 10. Yoshi making 10 here wouldn't change much. It puts O-Khan and Narita at the top, but since Narita beat O-Khan, he'd still take 3rd.

However, Narita does have a backdoor in if Takagi does beat Moloney. Narita, O-Khan, and Takagi are caught in a deadlock, and with Umino having lost to all three of them, this deadlock takes the 3rd place spot. The only way this gets messed up is if Yoshi-Hashi gets added to the 10-pointers. He beat Narita and Takagi, but lost to O-Khan, so O-Khan gets another tie-break win, putting him at the top of the 10-pointers, and kicking Narita off.

So yes, technically Narita can be locked into the playoffs before his final match, but he would pretty much need all the other 3 matches to go the right way, while also relying on draws and score ties. It'd be much simpler to just win.

4) Shota Umino – in with a win/draw

Umino also locks in his playoffs spot on a win. He can also take #1, thanks to his wins over ZSJ and Takeshita, if ZSJ loses and Takeshita wins. However, if ZSJ wins and Takeshita loses, Umino will be #3, even if he does win (and #2 if only one of those happens). He's also locked at #3 if he draws O-Khan.

And if Umino loses, he's got a very awkward chance. First, he needs Narita to beat Takeshita. He'll need one of them to stay at 10, and Takeshita is the preferred option. He'd already have a loss to O-Khan. Adding his loss to Narita in a tie-break would doom him. At least his win over Takeshita balances out and keeps him, Takeshita, and O-Khan in a deadlock. The next order of business is Moloney vs Takagi. The problem here is that they both beat Umino and they both lost to Takeshita, so if either of them win, Takeshita clears the tie. Umino will need them to draw, so that neither makes 10, maintaining the deadlock at #3. Yoshi-Hashi doesn't change much, as he lost to all three of Umino, Takeshita, and O-Khan, and O-Khan doesn't really factor with Moloney and Takagi added. His deadlock win is over Umino, so if Umino falls behind, things get worse for O-Khan.

5) Drilla Moloney – in with a win AND an O-Khan win AND a Takeshita win

The 8-pointers will need some help getting into the playoffs, as their own win won't be enough, and yes they must win. A draw will not be enough, considering we already have 4 guys with 10+ points.

There are a few things constant among the 8-pointers. One is that the best any of them can do is #3, and another is that they all need Umino to lose. Narita vs Takeshita guarantees at least two people will finish above 10 points, leaving only one potential spot for anyone currently at 8. If Umino also wins, he'll also be above 10, so no one on 8 now can qualify. Thus, O-Khan must beat Umino for any 8-pointer to have a remote chance of qualifying.

You'd think that these would be enough for Moloney, though, as he beat both O-Khan and Umino. However, Moloney is also relying on another result to get him into the playoffs, and that would be Takeshita beating Narita. With Takeshita having beaten both Moloney and O-Khan, him staying on 10 would put him over the other three, keeping the #3 spot for himself. Narita staying at 10 would be better for Moloney, since Moloney's beaten him too, giving him wins over everyone at 10, even if Yoshi-Hashi makes it to 10 as well.

6) Great-O-Khan – in with a win AND a Takagi win/draw AND a Narita/Takeshita win (no draw)

Technically speaking, O-Khan has more outcomes where he factors into the playoffs than Moloney. Moloney's listed requirements are stricter. However, in Moloney's scenarios, he's the sole qualifier at #3, totally clearing the other 10-pointers. However, for O-Khan, there's only one scenario where he's the clear #3. The others have him in deadlocks.

Let's go over the possibilities. In order to outright win #3, he'll need Takeshita to beat Narita, Takagi to beat Moloney, and Yoshi-Hashi to beat ZSJ.

The Takeshita winning option is a curious one. Narita beat both Umino and O-Khan, clearing the two in a draw, whereas Takeshita only beat O-Khan, resulting in a deadlock. You'd think Takeshita losing and staying on 10 would be easier to break, but that comes down to anyone else making 10. Yes, if Takeshita loses, he, O-Khan, and Umino would be in deadlock, but if anyone else joins them at 10 (which, with the Takagi-Moloney match, is nearly guaranteed to happen), Takeshita breaks through and takes #3 for himself. The only way he doesn't is if Moloney and Takagi draw, leading to the deadlock aforementioned deadlock, even if Yoshi-Hashi makes 10 too. This does allow O-Khan to factor into the playoffs, but only because of the deadlock draw.

On the other hand, while yes, Narita would be in the lead, and yes he would take #3 if Takagi & Moloney draw, but if that match makes a result, things change. Moloney winning would lead to his only playoffs scenario, overtaking Narita with his own head-to-head wins. However, if Takagi wins, then this creates a new deadlock draw between Takagi, O-Khan, and Narita (Umino is no longer a factor since he lost to all three), giving O-Khan another deadlock playoffs scenario. However, if Yoshi-Hashi manages to beat ZSJ and make 10 as well, he can break this deadlock, because he beat Narita and Takagi, but lost to O-Khan (he also lost to Umino, but Umino is already behind), allowing O-Khan to break through and take #3 for himself.

By the way, I didn't list Yoshi-Hashi's win in the minimum requirements because he only matters in giving O-Khan a solo playoffs spot. He doesn't change whether or not O-Khan gets into the top 3 in the first place.

7) Shingo Takagi – in with a win AND a ZSJ win/draw AND an O-Khan win AND a Takeshita win

Finally, we have Shingo Takagi, who is hanging onto this race by a pinky toe. Not only does he need specific results for every match, but his only scenario is a deadlock. No way to be a clear #3.

To abridge this discussion, Takagi's only way into the playoffs is essentially the second deadlock in O-Khan's section. Takeshita wins to keep Narita at 10, and O-Khan wins to put himself and Umino on 10 too, creating the deadlock between himself, O-Khan, and Narita. The only thing left to secure is that Yoshi-Hashi cannot win and give O-Khan the tie-breaker. Yoshi-Hashi must either lose or draw, maintaining the deadlock as the #3 qualifier, after which Takagi would probably have to win some sort of three-way match to qualify for the playoffs. Still, it's better than Yoshi-Hashi, who is also on 8 and still has a match, but can't factor into the playoffs at all.

———-

Results Table

As I did for A Block, I've moved my results table to the G1 Climax 35 Google Doc. You can access it through the link at the top of this post, or through this link, and go to the sheet names "B Block Last Day Outcomes".

Again, I hope this works for all of you.

———-

Potential Quarter-Finals Matches

With A Block set, we have a better look at the potential quarter-finals matches.

First, let's look at out #2's, and who will have to face Yota Tsuji. Honestly, it's a bit of a toss-up. Technically, Narita has the most ways to come in #2, but a lot of those rely on draws. If you exclude any outcome that relies on a draw, ZSJ, Narita, Takeshita, and Umino are all equally likely finish second. Narita and Umino have that musketeer moniker hanging above their heads alongside Tsuji, while Takeshita and Tsuji met in the quarter-finals of last year's G1, where Tsuji stood tall. Speaking of last year's G1, Tsuji was the one who ZSJ beat in last year's G1 Climax finals, so Tsuji would want some revenge there. Really, any of these options would make for an interesting match

As for our #3's, again, technically, the most likely to finish third and face David Finlay is Shota Umino, another finals rematch, this time from the New Japan Cup earlier this year. However, ignoring draw results, the one who is most likely to finish 3rd is Konosuke Takeshita. Correct me if I'm wrong, but as far as I know, the two have only ever met one-on-one in the block phase of last year's G1, where Finlay won out.

Everyone else is far less likely to finish #3 compared to Umino & Takeshita. Moloney would be fun for a War Dogs QF. ZSJ would complete a trilogy the two have had this year. Narita would reignite House of Torture issues. O-Khan is a relatively fresh match-up (I think their only match was in the 2023 New Japan Cup?). Takagi's a long shot, but he would also be a pretty fresh match.

———-

That does it for me in this year's G1 Climax. Thank you all for entertaining my deliriously descriptive posts. I'll be back later in the year for the Tag Leagues, as well as the round-up for the second half of the year for New Japan.

Until then, thanks for reading! See you next post.