Now, the likely winner is Mistico and he’s the only other man with a case, but I was puzzling over something. To put it simply: Every big Osaka and Tokyo show this year has been on par or significantly worse than the equivalent show last year (Power Struggle happening this year in Osaka would’ve been a really interesting datapoint). Every big show in the more minor territories that get fewer big shows, numbers have been up quite remarkably. Ultimately the Tokyo and Osaka slump had an easy answer: Naito left the company, which hurt numbers bad. The two big shows of 2025 (NJPW 2025, which begins on the 6th of January this year for reasons blatant), in Osaka and Tokyo, were basically 1:1. Sakura Genesis straight up reported a house that was up by 8 this year. After Naito leaves at Dontaku: Dominion, the G1 Climax Finals and KOPW all reported numbers significantly worse than last year.
But that raises a question for me: Why, then, did the Kobe show do the best numbers in a few years this year? For a company so cold in places they run big shows like Osaka and Tokyo, why are they outdrawing hometown promotion Dragon Gate and more successful periods of NJPW in Kobe? And it hit me: Those places are places that NJPW both don’t run often and won’t run a major show again that year. That house is presumably there for Tanahashi. In Tokyo, Tanahashi’s retirement road is a draw but less of a draw: After all, his all in last match is in the city. In Osaka? NJPW runs that city frequently, they’ll see him again. So Tanahashi alone can’t make up the loss of Naito.
The true tragedy for this case for Tanahashi as a super draw is that it needs time. Because if this theory is true, the houses for the Bew Beginning Tour could turn ugly. A big Osaka show without Naito or Tanahashi’s retirement tour could turn an UGLY house. Of course, time will tell and maybe Aaron Wolf can take Tanahashi’s place as a draw. All I can see is, from where I’m sitting, NJPW is on the edge of a cliff being held up just about by Tanahashi’s last run. Considering his importance to the company getting hotter and hotter through the late 2000s and early 2010s, maybe being the last hope of NJPW’s houses is a fitting end to his career.
by SevenSulivin